Aircastle Limited Q3 2025 Earnings Call - Fleet Modernization and Strong Lease Revenue Growth Amid Supply Constraints

Conference Operator: day and welcome to the Aircastle Limited Third Quarter 2025 Financial Update Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to James Connelly, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications. Please go ahead, Mr. Connelly.

James Connelly, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications, Aircastle Limited: Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Aircastle Limited’s Third Quarter 2025 Financial Update Call. With me today are Mike Inglese, Chief Executive Officer, and Roy Chandran, Chief Financial Officer. Other members of the management team are also on the line, and they will be available during the Q&A. We will begin the presentation shortly, but I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded, and a replay will be available through our website at www.aircastle.com. There you can also find the press release and PowerPoint presentation that accompany this call. I would like to point out that statements today, which are not historical facts, may be deemed forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from the estimates or expectations expressed in those statements.

Certain facts that could cause actual results to differ materially from Aircastle Limited’s expectations are detailed in our SEC filings, which can also be found on our website. I will direct you to Aircastle Limited’s press release for the full forward-looking statement legend. With that, I will now turn the call over to Mike.

Mike Inglese, Chief Executive Officer, Aircastle Limited: Thanks, Jim. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Aircastle finished its fiscal third quarter of 2025 with net income of $31 million on total revenues of $236 million. We acquired nine aircraft for $355 million in the third quarter, bringing our year-to-date acquisitions to 32 aircraft for approximately $1.3 billion, with a busy fourth quarter still to go. Our team has also been active on the sales front as well, with 20 aircraft sold year-to-date, bringing in proceeds of $369 million and gains on sales of $60 million. Lease rental revenue increased 22% versus the third quarter of 2024, demonstrating how we’ve successfully and profitably grown our fleet in what remains a very competitive market. Year-to-date, we’ve completed 123 lease transactions, an outstanding effort all around.

For the first time, more than half of our portfolio net book value is made up of new technology aircraft, standing now at about 52%. At the end of the third quarter, our fleet’s weighted average age is 8.6 years, with a weighted average remaining lease term of 5.5 years. On behalf of our leadership and our shareholders, I want to extend my gratitude to our global team’s focus and energy as they execute transactions and service our 73 customers around the world. Roy will go into our financial results in more detail, but first, I’d like to share my thoughts on the broader aviation market and what Aircastle is doing to position ourselves for the year ahead. As has been the case for several years now, we mindfully watch the supply of new aircraft coming to market and continue to see shortfall versus demand.

While deliveries of new aircraft began to pick up in late 2025 and production is expected to accelerate in 2026, demand is forecasted to outstrip the availability of aircraft and engines. Although the new technology portion of our fleet is at an all-time high, current technology aircraft continue to factor into our investment strategy. As a result of the lagging new aircraft deliveries and enduring new tech engine challenges, we continue to see how lease extensions far outnumber lease transitions. In addition, we still believe there are good risk-adjusted returns available in the current technology market. Overall, aircraft lives are being extended. According to an IATA report on aerospace supply chains published last month, the global average passenger fleet now stands at 12.8 years. IATA also reported that delivery shortfalls now total at least 5,300 aircraft.

The order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft, a number equal to almost 60% of the active fleet. Historically, this ratio has trended at roughly 30%-40%, so this represents a backlog of approximately 12 years of the current production capacity. Although aerospace supply chain bottlenecks are challenging airline profitability, higher input costs are generally being absorbed by consumers. A recent IATA report on the 2026 profitability expectations predicted slight improvements for both airline revenues and net margins. Load factors are also forecasted to set a record high of nearly 84% in 2026. Although there are always headwinds facing the global economy, including supply chain difficulties, geopolitical uncertainties, and sluggish global trade, airlines have proven over the past few years just how adaptable they can be to meet what appears to be the world’s sustaining desire to travel by air.

In this environment, aircraft leasing continues to be a long-term financing option for our customers. Despite aircraft shortages, the leasing sector continues to bring in new capital in a very competitive landscape. But this is where Aircastle has an advantage. For over 20 years, we’ve built a reputation as a valued trading partner because of our team of seasoned aviation professionals and our ability to execute quickly and efficiently. Ample liquidity has long been one of our strategic advantages. This was further bolstered in the third quarter with a ratings upgrade from Moody’s to Ba2. As optimistic as we are, we remain vigilant of uncertainties we see in the macro environment. Pockets of the global economy are experiencing impulses of economic isolationism and zones of outright hostility. Global aviation, on the other hand, has thrived on cross-border cooperation between peaceful nations and people.

It’s important to remember that in our long history, Aircastle has seen uncertainties come and go, and we are an experienced team who know how to measure risks and pivot strategies. With a proven track record and the shareholder support received from Marubeni Corporation and Mizuho Leasing, we look forward to closing out another successful year and expect to profitably grow in 2026. I’ll now turn it over to Roy to discuss our financial highlights in more detail.

Roy Chandran, Chief Financial Officer, Aircastle Limited: Thanks, Mike. For the third quarter, we generated net income of $31 million on total revenues of $236 million. Lease rental revenues of $193 million represented a 22% increase as compared to the third quarter of 2024 and a slight increase from the second quarter of this year. We purchased nine aircraft, adding $355 million to the book value of flight equipment. Among these acquisitions were two A320neos, an A321neo, and a 737 MAX 8 aircraft. Additionally, we delivered two new Embraer E2s, completing a 15-aircraft deal with our valued customer, KLM Cityhopper. The market for aircraft sales remains robust, and we have traditionally generated strong trading gains over time. Trading has allowed us to substantially improve the overall quality of our portfolio and recycle capital.

In the third quarter, we sold one narrowbody aircraft and one widebody aircraft, which brought our year-to-date sales to $369 million, and that came on sales of $60 million. By the end of the third quarter, the weighted average age of aircraft acquired year-to-date was four years, and the average age of aircraft we sold was 19 years. The weighted average age of our fleet is currently at 8.6 years. The 17% increase seen in operating cost in the third quarter was driven by higher depreciation, reflecting a growing fleet and higher interest due to increased borrowings. During the third quarter, we also entered into additional insurance settlement agreements totaling $7 million. Turning now to financing. 99% of our $8.6 billion fleet is now unencumbered, while 98% of our debt is unsecured.

The weighted average interest rate on our debt at the end of the third quarter was 5%, down slightly from the second quarter of this year. Adjusted net debt to equity at the end of the third quarter was 2.2 times. As of January 1st, we had total liquidity of $2.6 billion, comprised of $1.8 billion of undrawn facilities, unrestricted cash of $100 million, and $700 million in projected 12-month adjusted operating cash flows and contracted sales. In closing, strong fundamentals continue to drive the demand for air travel and, by extension, aircraft leasing. Aircastle’s strategy is formulated on the principle of disciplined capital allocation that adapts to the ebb and flow of the demand for aircraft across the market. We are well-positioned to complete another profitable year of growth.

We are confident in our ability to raise efficient capital and expect to continue to do so with our improved ratings. Our conservative approach to deploying capital will enable us to grow, service our customers, and meet expectations of our shareholders and debt investors. And with that, Operator, we are happy to open the call up to questions.

Conference Operator: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing Star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press Star 1 to ask a question, and we’ll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions, and again, it’s Star 1 to ask a question, and we’ll take our first question from Mark Streeter with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Mark Streeter, Analyst, JPMorgan: Okay, great. Good morning, everyone. Roy, one question for you. Now that you’ve made it to mid-BBB with S&P and Moody’s and you have Fitch at BBB Plus, just sort of thinking about, is there a path to higher ratings? Because I would make the argument, right, that standalone Aircastle should be viewed as mid-BBB just without the parent support, and then you have the different parent support. And so forth. So is that something you’re pursuing? Do you want to get to high BBB across the board, and do you think there’s a path to get there?

Roy Chandran, Chief Financial Officer, Aircastle Limited: I think there’s always a path there. I mean, I think ultimately it’s a function of what the agencies think of, the ratings of the peer group. I think when we think about ratings, what’s important for us is that we continue to price and be rated consistently with our immediate peer group. And as you know, kind of in the aircraft leasing world, there’s a couple of tiers. So right now, I think we feel pretty good kind of where we stand. I think the question really for us is what kind of concessions we have to make in order to get from mid-BBB to strong BBB, right, to BBB Plus. And all things being equal, yeah, I think everybody wants to kind of get to a higher tiered rating. But I think in our mind, the question is, what does it take?

Are the agencies going to force us to continue to operate at lower leverage? Typically, they’ve used debt to equity as sort of a low debt to equity as a proxy for risk. And if we don’t have to make those concessions, I think the answer is yes. On the other hand, if you have to do some unnatural things that relate to your credit metrics, I think the answer will be a tougher one for us to accomplish.

Mark Streeter, Analyst, JPMorgan: Yeah, I think that sort of gets to the heart of how the agencies have historically held you to a higher standard or tighter threshold for leverage because of your older portfolio focus, which is now not as old relative to the peer set because you’ve gotten younger, never mind the fact that the middle of the market and so forth has gotten so much stronger. So do you see them sort of relaxing the penalty that you have to pay for a certain ratings threshold because maybe they’ve gotten smarter over time or the market has evolved and they better understand your strategy?

Roy Chandran, Chief Financial Officer, Aircastle Limited: I hope so. I think that’s partly been reflected in the upgrades. I think there’s a deeper understanding of the sector and also kind of how we’ve operated. So yeah, I hope so. I think there is generally kind of being less hung up on age. But having said that, that’s something that everybody tends to focus on very quickly.

Mark Streeter, Analyst, JPMorgan: Got it. Okay. Well, that was one question, two parts. Question number two, Mike, to you, and I don’t know if Doug’s on the phone, but when we think about just engine values, especially with older kit that you’re selling, the portfolio you sold this quarter was, what, 19 years old, I think you said. So just sort of thinking about just how obviously everyone knows that on older aircraft, the value disproportionately skews to the engines, but it’s at an extreme. Probably the biggest extreme it’s really been in sort of modern times, right? Right now, given what’s going on with engine values. So how does that factor into how you think about churning the older end of the portfolio, whether you’re ripping engines off early, or does it make you want to keep older aircraft longer, sell them sooner?

Just what sort of dynamics are at play here for how you might be managing that end of the spectrum differently in 2026 than you have been over the past few years?

Roy Chandran, Chief Financial Officer, Aircastle Limited: Look, yeah, clearly, I know engine values continue to be strong. As we look at our own portfolio, we’re always looking at ways to leverage the use of engines across our portfolio with our customers. And when we’re thinking about kind of end-of-life realities with respect to our leases and end-of-lease, we’re trying to do the best we can to make that end-of-lease mixture be as much cash due from your lessee as possible. And so we’re trying to balance usage of engines across our own fleet, managing our expiry profile as we’re looking forward, and trying to find the right mix of, in essence, monetizing an asset and taking potential value movement risks off the table. And then what are we doing with that capital as we’re looking to redeploy it and grow and increase profitability for the overall business?

Mark Streeter, Analyst, JPMorgan: Great. That’s helpful. Look forward, Mike, to see you and the team in Dublin, in San Diego for ISTAT, and in Washington, D.C. for our Industrials Conference. So thank you. Well, safe travels.

Roy Chandran, Chief Financial Officer, Aircastle Limited: Sounds great. Thanks, Mark. Thanks, Bob.

Conference Operator: As a reminder, it’s Star 1 to ask a question. It appears that there are no additional questions at this time. I’ll turn the conference back to James Connelly for additional remarks.

James Connelly, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications, Aircastle Limited: I just want to thank everyone for joining us today. If you have any questions or follow-up, please reach out, and hope you have a great day.

Conference Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.