Aeromexico Q3 2025 Earnings Call - Strong IPO Debut and Resilient Profitability Despite Demand Hurdles

Conference Operator: Good morning, and welcome to Aeromexico’s Third Quarter twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. There will be a question and answer session at the end with instructions given at that time. For the webcast participants, you may submit questions at any time during the call using the Ask a Question section on the webcast. As a reminder, today’s conference call is being recorded.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Ms. Lucero Medina, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Medina, you may begin.

Lucero Medina, Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Aeromexico: Good morning, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to Grupo Aeromexico’s third quarter twenty twenty five earnings conference call. Joining me today to discuss our results are Andres Conesa, chief executive officer Aaron Murray, Chief Commercial Officer and Ricardo Sanchez Baker, Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act regarding future events and our company’s future performance. We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements on this call.

For more information, please see the risk factors described in our published third quarter twenty twenty five earnings release, the final prospectus for our IPO published 11/05/2025 with the SEC and other documents that we may file with or furnish to the US SEC from time to time. Any forward looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of more information of future events. During this call, we will present both IFRS and non IFRS financial measures. We have included a reconciliation adjustments and other considerations of our non IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS measures in our third quarter earnings release. The earnings release is also available on the website.

It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Andres Cones.

Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aeromexico: Thank you, Lucero, and good day, everyone. We appreciate you joining us. Today marks a milestone moment. It’s our first quarterly results call as a public company. I could not be prouder or more energized by what we have accomplished together.

Following the successful pricing of our IPO, the strong demand we saw from investors is a clear testament to how Aeromexico is viewed today as a company defined by trust, disciplined execution, and long standing commitment to excellence. I want to extend my sincere gratitude to our entire team for their unwavering dedication and to our shareholders for the confidence they have placed in us. The completion of our dual listing on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Mexican Stock Exchange marks an important milestone in Aeromexico’s journey. This achievement elevates our visibility in the global markets and positions us for sustainable long term growth. We remain deeply committed to the highest standards of governance, transparency and accountability, key pillars that are fundamental to who we are as a company and underscore our leadership across Latin America and beyond.

Turning to our third quarter results. Aeromexico once again delivered strong performance, demonstrating the resilience of our business model and the outstanding execution of our team. The third quarter is traditionally our busiest period of the year. Achieving solid results during this peak season requires precision, coordination, and an unwavering commitment across the organization, and our team delivered. I want to take a moment to recognize the people behind these results, our employees.

Their professionalism, their passion, and focus on excellence continue to define who we are and drive our success. Despite some demand challenges earlier in the quarter, we delivered industry leading financial results, recording the second best third quarter in Aeromexico’s history. We maintained strong margins, excellent operational reliability and a solid balance sheet. Total revenue for the third quarter reached $1,400,000,000 with an adjusted EBITDAR margin of 31% and an operating margin of 18%, keeping Aeromexico among the top performing airlines globally. These results demonstrate our continued focus on profitable growth, cost discipline and strategic network management.

On the operational front, the company continues to stand out as one of the most reliable airlines in the world. Through October, we continue to lead in Syrian’s global punctuality ratings. Our service excellence also continues to earn recognition from our passengers and across the industry. For the seventh consecutive year, Aeromexico received a five star global airline Apex award, a distinction that highlights our world class customer experience. This consistency reflects our unwavering commitment to safety, service quality, and disciplined execution, the the foundation of our sustained success.

We also made meaningful progress on our investment plans on the modernization of our fleet and on our efforts to elevate the customer experience. We added four Boeing seven thirty seven MAX aircraft during the quarter, expanding our operating fleet to a 162 aircraft with an average age of 8.5 years, one of the youngest and most efficient in the region. We see additional opportunities across our long haul network, particularly in Europe, as highlighted by our recent announcement of new routes from Mexico City to Barcelona and Monterrey to Paris, both beginning next summer. In addition, we inaugurated a state of the art check-in area of Mexico Mexico City International Airport designed for our premier one and SkyTeam customers. This is the first phase of a broader transformation to upgrade all check-in areas at the airport, further enhancing the travel experience for our passengers.

Looking ahead, our priorities remain clear and consistent, to deliver high quality, sustainable results, to strengthen our competitive position in Mexico and abroad, and to create lasting value for our shareholders, customers, and employees. Our focus remains on operational excellence, disciplined capacity management, and continued innovation in service, ensuring Aeromexico remains synonymous with reliability and trust wherever we fly. With that, I will now turn it over to Aaron, who will share more detail on our commercial performance and demand trends. Thank you very much.

Aaron Murray, Chief Commercial Officer, Aeromexico: Thank you, Andres, and good morning, everyone. Echoing Andres, I want to express my sincere gratitude to the entire Aeromexico team, and I’d also like to thank our incredibly loyal customers. The combination of these two critical groups is the foundation of our success. For the 2025, we delivered solid results with all regions achieving strong profitability. Passenger revenue was down 4.9% year over year, a 1.7 improvement compared to the second quarter.

Passenger unit revenue declined 4.3% year over year, but has shown steady sequential improvement throughout 2025. Within the quarter, July was our most challenging month, but we reached an inflection point in August and achieved nearly flat unit revenue performance for both August and September. Domestic performance has been impacted this year by currency, economic and geopolitical headwinds and has been most pronounced in border cities due to changes in U. S. Immigration policy.

We acted early, adjusting capacity to align with demand. And as a result, capacity declined 11.3% year over year in the third quarter, while domestic passenger unit revenue was flat. Internationally, results were strong with profitability across all regions. Our widebody portfolio continued to perform well, with Europe remaining our most profitable region. The US region faced headwinds in 2025 amid continued geopolitical uncertainty.

We acted decisively by adjusting capacity earlier in the year to better align with shifting demand trends. U. S. Capacity increased 15% during the first half of twenty twenty five, but was flat for the third quarter. These adjustments, combined with demand recovery, resulted in a six point passenger unit revenue improvement from the first quarter low with continued progress expected in the fourth quarter.

Turning to premium. As Mexico’s flagship airline, Aeromexico remains focused on serving premium customers with exceptional products and experiences. We continue investing in our lounges, onboard offerings, including WiFi, cabin improvements and world class cuisine and other elements that elevate the customer journey. In the third quarter, premium unit revenue outperformed main cabin by five points year over year. While both cabins deliver strong margins, we continue to see growing demand for premium products and services.

On the loyalty front, we’ve seen meaningful growth in the percentage of passengers who are members of our Aeromexico Rewards program. In the third quarter, we reached a record high of 33%, up three points year over year and nine points since we reacquired and rebranded the program in 2023. We are still in the early stages of building a program designed to deliver meaningful value to our most important customers, and we expect continued growth in the following years. Turning to outlook. As we move into the fourth quarter, we continue to see sequential improvement in both passenger revenue and unit revenue performance.

We expect our passenger revenue to increase 3% to 5% year over year on a modest capacity reduction. Industry capacity trends in The Mexico City metropolitan area are also favorable, with near flat capacity at Mexico City, Toluca and Santa Lucia airports, while the rest of the country is up approximately 4%. These trends give us confidence that the positive revenue momentum will continue through year end and set a strong foundation for 2026. In closing, Aeromexico’s solid third quarter results demonstrate our ability to execute effectively in a challenging environment, underscoring the strength and resilience of our business. I’ll now turn the call over to Ricardo.

Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aeromexico: Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. I would like to join Andres and Aaron in expressing my sincere gratitude to the entire Aeromexico team for their exceptional dedication. Their efforts have enabled us to achieve another significant milestone for the company, the successful completion of our IPO and dual listing on the New York Stock Exchange and the Mexican Stock Exchange. The team’s commitment to excellence continues to drive our progress, and the strong third quarter results further affirm that we are advancing in the right direction. Our third quarter results were in line with the upper range of the flash numbers presented in the IPO prospectus.

Total revenue exceeded EUR 1,400,000,000.0 and remained stable compared to the same period in 2024 once extraordinary non recurring items are excluded. Total revenue per ASM increased by 0.6% year over year, excluding extraordinary non recurring items recorded in the 2024. These extraordinary non recurring items include: one, estimated breakouts from unused tickets resulting from changes to ticket usage rules implemented as a response to the uncertainty associated to the COVID crisis and two, compensation from Boeing for financial damages associated with the Boeing seven thirty seven MAX. On the cost side, total operating expenses increased 2.5% year over year, mainly reflecting higher depreciation and amortization from fleet additions. The full effect of labor cost increases following the twenty twenty four collective bargaining agreement renegotiations and higher airport and passenger service costs resulting from expanded international operations.

Unit costs, excluding fuel CASM, increased by 6%, primarily due to the ownership expenses associated with new aircraft deliveries, changes in the labor costs, the appreciation of the Mexican peso and general inflationary factors. Fuel performance continued to improve. Fuel consumption per ASM, a measure of efficiency, decreased 1% year over year, while the average fuel price per liter declined 3.7%. Aeromexico is now among the world’s largest operator of the seven thirty seven aircraft type MAX aircraft types. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $442,000,000, reflecting a margin of 31%.

This marks the company’s second highest third quarter adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin on record. Excluding extraordinary non recurring items recorded in the 2024, adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of this year increased by 1.4% with respect to the same period in 2024. Operating income reached €253,000,000 with an 18% margin, also the second best third quarter performance on record. Net income was €97,000,000 in the third quarter, representing a 7% net margin. Net finance costs amounted to 132,000,000 primarily as a result of foreign exchange movements.

A foreign exchange gain of EUR 14,400,000.0 in the third quarter became an EUR 11,300,000.0 loss this quarter, resulting in a EUR 25,700,000.0 increase in costs year over year. Other factors affecting finance costs for the 2025 include lease interest from fleet expansion, increased finance charges related to our senior secured notes issued last year as well as lower interest income after the capital reduction distributed to shareholders since December 2023. At the end of the quarter, Aeromexico remained in a robust financial position. The company reported EUR $934,000,000 in cash on hand, complemented by a EUR 200,000,000 undrawn revolving credit facility, resulting in total liquidity of EUR 1,100,000,000.0, which accounts for 21% of revenue over the past twelve months. We believe that this strong liquidity enables considerable flexibility to the company.

In the first nine months of the year, we generated EUR $568,000,000 in net operating cash flow and reduced financial debt by EUR 93,000,000, including a EUR 48,000,000 reduction in the third quarter. Our leverage ratio measured as adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.9x, reflecting continued deleveraging and robust cash generation. Turning to our outlook with current trends, we project a strong fourth quarter. Total revenue, excluding extraordinary non recurring items recorded in the 2024, is expected to grow between 1% to 3% year over year, with adjusted EBITA margin expected to range between 27.529%, and operating income margin expected to range between 1415.5%. We anticipate capacity for the December will be down between 3% to 1.5% year over year.

These figures imply for the full year an increase in total capacity of up to 0.5% and adjusted EBITA margin within the range of 29 to 30% and operating income margin between 1516%. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We intend to reinvest in segments that offer strong returns, consistently work to reduce our debt and maintain targeted investments designed to provide an exceptional customer experience. We will continue to evaluate other ways to deliver value to our shareholders as well. Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, our strategy remains centered on driving profitable and sustainable growth.

We continue to focus on protecting margins, optimizing our cost structure and maintaining strong financial flexibility, ensuring Aeromexico is well positioned to capture opportunities and deliver long term value. Before concluding, I am pleased to share that we have launched our new Investor Relations website at ir.aeromexico.com, where you can access the latest company information, financial data and materials from this call. Thank you very much for joining the call, and we will now proceed to the Q and A section.

Conference Operator: Thank you so much. Our Our first question is from Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Michael Linenberg, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Hey, good morning. Congratulations on a successful IPO. Two questions here. As we look at the guidance, implied in that is that RASM should be positive, or very high probability that it will be positive. I know you mentioned that in August and September, it had inflected positive.

Which geographies, regions or segments are leading? Which ones are lagging in the fourth quarter?

Aaron Murray, Chief Commercial Officer, Aeromexico: Yes. This is Aaron in Commercial. So to answer your question about unit revenue being positive, yes, I could both we expect on the domestic and international front to have positive unit revenue go along with the revenue guidance. In terms of things that are standing out, on the positive side, you know and we’re about 70 to 80% booked for the quarter. Right?

So we have pretty good, you know, pretty good confidence at how things are gonna come in. But we’re seeing strength really across the board. I think things worth calling out, domestically, as we said, we we saw a sequential improvement, but we expect, you know, kind of quarter over quarter domestic to probably have the biggest unit revenue year over year quarter over quarter improvement. Mhmm. Within uniquely within within domestic, we’re having a strong fourth quarter in our beach, you know, Playas portfolio.

We did take some capacity cuts and planned on a little smaller portfolio this year just based on last year’s performance. But weather has really been cooperating, and we’re that’s kind of standing out in the domestic portfolio. It’s about 8% of our ASKs for Aeromexico. And then I’d say the other one worth calling out in the fourth quarter is just the trajectory and improvement The U. S.

Is on. We’re seeing quite a bit of sequential improvement fourth quarter over kind of first March of the year. So those would be the two that are really standing out to me as strong performers, in particular, given where the year started.

Michael Linenberg, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Great. Thanks for that, Aaron. And then you mentioned U. S. I guess this is a question for Andreas.

Your President, I believe, last week indicated that she was confident or felt confident that The U. S. And Mexico could get to some sort of a resolution in the coming weeks over the bilateral. Do you share that confidence? Or where do things stand?

Your thoughts. Thanks for taking my questions.

Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aeromexico: Thank you, Michael. Thank you for the congrats. And, yeah, we, you know, we have been in very close contact with our our government. And what we know is that, they have been in contact with, with, you know, the US government, both as she mentioned, you know, in with the state department and with the DOT. So, again, we are we’re hopeful that, this issue, you know, will be behind everyone soon, but, we don’t have additional information, you know, beyond that.

But, but, again, supporting them in in in everything, they need. And and, hopefully, you know, they solve this mainly this cargo related matter. No? That was has been the the main point of discussion between the two countries.

Michael Linenberg, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Great. Thanks, Andreas.

Conference Operator: Thank you so much. Our next question comes from the line of Guilherme Mendez with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Guilherme Mendez, Analyst, JPMorgan: Hey, everybody. Andres, Aaron, Ricardo, Lucero. Thanks for taking my questions, and congrats on the IPO. Aaron, following up on your comment, I believe you said that you do expect capacity to grow by 3% to 5% into next year. So just correct me if I’m wrong, but I wanted to explore what is the the bull and bear case here.

So given the fact that you guys have some idleness on the fleet, what could be the bull case into next year? So assuming that cross border improves more than expected and also domestic performance better, what could be the bull case in terms of capacity addition into next year? And the second one is to Ricardo maybe on the liquidity side. You mentioned about capital allocation on target investments, reduced leverage, but also considering other opportunities. By other opportunities, mean capital distribution?

Maybe you have restrictions on dividends, but maybe a capital reduction. So how should we think about, that side of of capital allocation to shareholders in in in the midterm? Thank you, guys.

Aaron Murray, Chief Commercial Officer, Aeromexico: Yeah. So just in terms of, like, carrying forward the trends into next year, we’re not providing, like, specific guidance right now into 2026. But what I can tell you is, you know, we had a number of aircraft delivered, in in 2025, and, you know, we so we have opportunity to to grow. In the first quarter, we expect, you know, modest, you know, kind of flattish growth. But what we’re really thinking about next year is, you know, in summer IATA season.

So I’d say, you know, we we definitely have with the aircraft that have delivered the opportunity to grow, and I would expect that kind of inflection point to be in the summer IATA schedule. Just to complement base, what what Aaron just mentioned, yes, as we

Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aeromexico: we have stressed, you know, one, you know, important factor for margin expansions going forward is this operational leverage. As Ricardo explained in his remarks, you know, in the third q, we had an increasing in cost per available seat mile associated, you know, with additional aircraft that we received. That, you know, growing 0.5% this year, we have, you know, more aircraft than we need. So that will give us a big positive momentum going into 2026. Victor?

Thank you, Andre. Thank you, Ricardo. Regarding liquidity, yes, I mean, we have mentioned, we have been producing very strong free cash flow, and we expect that this will continue. And this cash flow has been enough for us to deleverage, also to fund our CapEx program, which includes maintenance CapEx and investments in products, as Andres mentioned. And we have a free cash flow left that we could use for additional opportunities.

This could be, let’s say, opportunistic purchase of aircraft that are already operating with us. If we find opportunities, sometimes lessors going to sell their aircraft at attractive prices, and then we can save substantial money on the delivery cost. That could be one opportunity. But we think that going forward, yes, we would be in a position to evaluate other alternatives to distribute resources to shareholders. We are not at that stage right now, but that’s something that we expect to happen in the future.

Guilherme Mendez, Analyst, JPMorgan: Clear. Thank you both, and congrats again.

Conference Operator: Thank you so much. Our next question comes from Enrique So to with Itau BBA. Please proceed.

Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aeromexico: Hi, team. Thank you so much for taking my call, and congratulations for the IPO. My question goes particularly with the 2024 normalized results. If you can provide us a little bit more details on that. Yes.

Thank you. Thanks, Enrique. Thank you for your call. Yeah. I mean, 2024 was really an exceptional year.

We produced record results. But also in 2024, we booked a couple of nonrecurring items that are particular. Now usually, every year, we have nonrecurring items, some positives, some negatives, they tend to cancel out. But in 2024, we have two particular situations. One is associated to Boeing compensation that we received after the 07/2009 grounding.

So that’s part of it. But the most relevant component is associated to unused tickets or expired tickets. What do we mean by that? Usually, when when we sell a ticket, it has a validity of twelve months. But what happened is that during the COVID crisis, just before the COVID started and after COVID started, there was a lot of uncertainty in in the market.

Some markets were closed. Passengers were nervous about traveling. So we extended this flexibility. And instead of expiring the ticket after ten months, we we extended the validity of this ticket until basically 2024 when we had the last extension. So at that point, tickets that were unused were canceled, and and we booked the revenue even though these tickets were sold earlier than that, close to the COVID crisis.

So that’s a very particular nonrecurring item that we think is important to adjust, particularly when we make comparisons versus last year. So last year, for example, the total amount of these two nonrecurring items was around $166,000,000 And of this, between 85% to 90% is attributable to this unused ticket item. Perfect. Thank you so much, and congratulations again.

Conference Operator: Thank you. I do not see any further questions on the telephones. Back to management.

Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aeromexico: Yeah. We we see online one question regarding to the recent DOT restrictions announced around three weeks ago. Again, that’s related to to the answer I may I made before. Again, we are waiting and I’m confident that both governments will reach an understanding soon. But in the meantime, we grew, as Aaron explained, to The US.

Basically, in the last, two years, everything, you know, after being in category two, as you know, which, you know, Mexico was downgraded a couple of years ago when we were lifted to category one. We deployed all the all the different flights that we wanted. So we are where we want to be today. We don’t have anything planned for the, you know, for the for the near future. So, really, this restriction, you know, in AICM doesn’t, you know, affect us in the in the short and medium term.

And, again, we’re confident that, it will be sold soon. And we we did have to cancel from Santa Lucia a couple of flights, one to Houston, the other one to McAllen. So, those flights are not operating today, and we’re waiting again for that order not to be, you know, once an agreement is reached to to be back. And, you know, we’ll we’ll keep you posted, on that. The other the the only other routes that was affected, we were planning to start San Juan from, from AICM, from our home in Mexico City.

We we didn’t start that. But, again, you know, I don’t explain. Only in the 2025, you know, ASKs to The US grew 15%, and we have, you know, several additional markets. So, again, we we are fine and looking forward that, again, this issue between the two the two governments is resolved soon.

Conference Operator: I’m still not showing any further questions in the queue.

Andres Conesa, Chief Executive Officer, Aeromexico: Well, thank you very much for, you know, attending this call, and, we look forward, you know, to see you in our, you know, end of the year, you know, four q with the four q results. Thank you for your confidence, and rest assured that we will continue to deliver on this very strong performance. Thank you very much.

Conference Operator: And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.