Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
311 total articles
Barclays expects Turkey to continue allowing the lira to depreciate at the current pace as a deliberate instrument to stabilize inflation. The bank has set a year-end USD/TRY target of 50.25 and projects this level by the end of 2026, citing central bank reserve deployment and a 300 basis point increase in TRY OMO funding rates to limit local dolla…
Barclays projects the Mexican peso will strengthen against the U.S. dollar by the end of the year, setting a USD/MXN forecast of 17.25. The bank points to early movement on the USMCA review and sensitivity of the peso to global risk appetite as drivers of its outlook. Barclays also highlights the limited net effect of higher oil prices on Mexico's …
Barclays expects the Chinese yuan to trade in a consolidative range against the U.S. dollar through the summer, citing seasonal pressures and lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The bank highlighted typical year-to-year factors such as a widening services deficit and dividend-related foreign exchange demand from Hong Kong-listed Chines…
Barclays projects the U.S. dollar-Hong Kong dollar rate will consolidate above 7.82 in the near term in line with broader dollar strength, before moving back toward the midpoint of the linked exchange rate band (7.75-7.85) later in the year. The bank cites renewed carry trade positioning driven by the Middle East conflict and increased IPO activity…
Barclays has revised up its outlook for the Australian dollar, forecasting AUD/USD at 0.74 by year-end. The bank attributes the upgrade to an AI-linked commodity demand shock, a firmer Reserve Bank of Australia policy stance and reduced vulnerability to Middle East energy disruptions, alongside an improvement in hedging costs for US asset exposure.
Barclays continues to forecast a gradual appreciation of the Swiss franc even after the Swiss National Bank signaled a dovish tilt at its March meeting. The investment bank argues the SNB's reluctance to curb franc strength through negative interest rates or markedly larger foreign exchange interventions, combined with current account trends and ro…
Barclays anticipates the Canadian dollar will underperform other commodity currencies as ongoing trade frictions with the United States create near-term uncertainty. The bank highlights limited progress in renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, notes the treaty's automatic renewal marker on July 1, and points to energy prices as t…
Barclays predicts the Japanese yen will face short-term weakness driven by geopolitical developments but anticipates a gradual, modest rebound later as negative terms-of-trade shocks reverse. The bank believes intervention risks will limit extreme yen depreciation near the 160 level, and notes that recent Bank of Japan board appointments and potent…
UBS has increased its near-term projections for the USD/JPY currency pair, citing persistently elevated global energy prices that advantage the United States as a net energy exporter while weighing on Japan as a major energy importer. The bank raised its June 2026 and September 2026 targets, left December 2026 and March 2027 forecasts unchanged, an…
Most Asian currencies eased on Tuesday as markets processed conflicting messages about talks related to the Middle East and reacted to a rebound in the U.S. dollar. The greenback firmed, while Japanese core inflation unexpectedly cooled below the central bank's target and the flash manufacturing PMI softened, prompting a more cautious outlook for m…
Bank of America has grown more cautious on the British pound, recommending a short position in GBP/USD from the low 1.34s toward 1.30. The call reflects a market reassessment of the Middle East conflict as likely more prolonged, increasing risk-off behavior, pressuring UK gilts and amplifying political and fiscal concerns ahead of the May elections…
Bank of America strategists, including Adarsh Sinha, now expect the euro to weaken against the U.S. dollar in the near term—revising their EUR/USD forecast to 1.14—before regaining strength later in the year toward a 1.20 year-end target. The revision reflects altered macro assumptions following the Middle East conflict and related energy supply di…
The British pound climbed above $1.34 on Monday, recovering from earlier lows near $1.32, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary delay in military strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure following what he described as productive discussions. Global equities moved higher while oil and gold prices fell sharply on the developm…
UBS's Chief Investment Office lowered its June forecast for GBP/USD to 1.34 and expects the pound to face near-term pressure from dollar safe-haven flows, elevated oil prices and pre-election UK political uncertainty. While the firm sees the pound supported by attractive carry and a potential recovery toward 1.40 later in its forecast horizon, it w…
UBS Switzerland AG has lowered its projection for the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate in June to 0.91, attributing the downgrade to persistent US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices and increased investor risk aversion. The bank outlines a risk-off scenario that could drive EUR/CHF below 0.90 and as low as 0.88, while retaining a medium-term forecast o…
Sterling fell on Friday, pulled down by firming oil prices even after the Bank of England delivered a more hawkish-than-expected message that has lifted expectations for future UK interest rates. The pound eased to $1.34, trimming some of Thursday’s strong advance, while EUR/GBP was steady and EUR/USD retreated amid renewed dollar support and ECB r…
UBS strategists warn foreign exchange markets are likely to face increased volatility in the near term as the Iran conflict raises the prospect of prolonged disruption to energy supplies. The bank highlights rising crude prices, the potential for targeted attacks on energy infrastructure, and shifting central bank postures as key drivers of currenc…
Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday and finished the week marginally lower as markets weighed the economic fallout from elevated oil prices linked to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Hawkish commentary from several major central banks reinforced fears that oil-driven inflation will keep interest rates elevated, while the dollar, after rising to mu…
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as a sharp rise in oil prices amid heightened Middle East tensions, together with a firmer U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve's recent policy stance, pushed the USD/INR pair higher. The move raises concerns about India's import bill and the potential widening of its current account deficit as energy …
Most Asian currencies made modest gains on Thursday as markets digested strong U.S. inflation signals and mixed Federal Reserve messaging that supported the dollar overnight. The Japanese yen remained anchored close to its weakest levels since mid-2024 after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged, while a spike in oil prices tied to the escalating …
Goldman Sachs identifies a roughly 2% rise in the trade-weighted dollar since the start of the war with Iran, attributing the move to higher energy prices and resultant terms-of-trade shifts. The bank notes markets appear to be prioritizing the inflationary implications of the shock over growth concerns, though recession fears resurfaced late last …
Most Asian currencies traded in narrow bands as investors weighed geopolitical concerns surrounding Iran and prepared for a cluster of central bank meetings. The U.S. dollar held steady after two weeks of gains, the yen showed some recovery ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting, and a handful of Asian exchange rates recorded small moves tied to higher e…
The U.S. dollar trimmed recent gains as a modest revival in risk appetite surfaced ahead of a series of central bank policy announcements. The yen strengthened from anxiety-inducing levels, the euro held near recent gains and global risk indicators were influenced by developments in the Middle East and shifts in policymakers' expected paths.
Bank of America researchers say quantitative indicators and option-flow data show investors are moving decisively into U.S. dollar exposure as the conflict in the Middle East increases the prospect of prolonged hostilities and higher energy prices. Technical signals point to further dollar strength versus several currencies traditionally viewed as …
Bank of America adjusted its Thai baht forecast, anticipating a near-term weakening to 33 per U.S. dollar by mid-2026 followed by a recovery to 31 per dollar by the end of 2026. The revision reflects the combined effects of an oil price shock and an elevated Thai nominal effective exchange rate after post-election equity inflows, which has increase…
