Currencies January 30, 2026

Japan’s Yen Support Limited to Warnings, MoF Records Show

Official data indicate no direct market intervention from late December through late January despite brief yen rallies and reports of cross-border coordination

By Hana Yamamoto
Japan’s Yen Support Limited to Warnings, MoF Records Show

Japan did not execute foreign exchange intervention between December 29 and January 28, according to Ministry of Finance figures, leaving currency-stabilizing actions confined to verbal warnings and reported rate checks after a volatile late-January episode that briefly lifted the yen. Money market flows did not show the large outflows typical of direct intervention, even as authorities signaled coordination with the United States and maintained the option to act.

Key Points

  • MoF data show zero foreign exchange intervention spending from December 29 through January 28, indicating reliance on verbal warnings and diplomatic signals.
  • The yen jumped 1.7% on January 23 and rallied further after reports of rate checks by Tokyo and Washington officials, but BoJ money market data lacked the large outflows typical of direct intervention.
  • Elevated Japanese government bond yields and the yen's volatility intersect with political risk as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeks an electoral mandate on February 8; markets impacted include currency traders and the government bond market.

Summary

Official Ministry of Finance data show Japan made no purchases or sales of foreign currency in the market from December 29 through January 28, confirming that government efforts to support the yen during that period were limited to verbal warnings and diplomatic signals rather than direct intervention.


Market moves and reported checks

Following a Bank of Japan decision, the yen rose 1.7% on January 23 after trading close to an 18-month low against the dollar. The currency continued to gain over the next two sessions amid reports of so-called rate checks by finance officials in both Tokyo and Washington - a practice often preceding intervention and sometimes interpreted as the prelude to coordinated action to shore up the currency.

Despite those reports, money market indicators compiled by the Bank of Japan this week did not reveal the large outflows from domestic accounts that usually accompany active government intervention in the foreign exchange market.


Official comments and stance

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and senior currency official Atsushi Mimura declined to elaborate on the reported rate checks. Mimura reiterated that Japan would maintain close coordination with the United States on foreign exchange matters and would take appropriate steps as needed. Historically, Japanese authorities avoid confirming intervention even as they warn they are ready to counter one-sided, speculative moves in the currency.


Market context and reserve position

The yen gave back some of its weekly gains on Friday, slipping 0.5% to 153.79 per dollar. Tokyo retains substantial foreign exchange reserves, holding $1.16 trillion as of December, providing it with significant capacity to intervene should policymakers decide to do so.

Analysts emphasize that intervention can be a short-lived remedy. Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney, observed: "History tells you that intervention is only a temporary solution to a weaker currency." He noted there are "real and fundamental arguments as to why the yen is where it’s at."


Wider implications

The yen's extended slide alongside a surge in Japanese government bond yields to record levels has heightened investor concern about the country’s strained finances. This volatility arrives at a politically sensitive moment: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is seeking a mandate for her economic reflation agenda in a snap election set for February 8.

Tokyo's most recent direct interventions occurred in 2024, when the government spent a record 15.3 trillion yen - equivalent to $99.43 billion - to support the yen amid a sharp policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Market reporting uses an exchange rate reference of $1 = 153.8800 yen.


Conclusion

Ministry of Finance records for the covered month indicate no use of public funds in the FX market, suggesting authorities relied on signals and coordination rather than immediate purchases or sales of foreign currency to influence the yen's path.

Risks

  • Continued yen weakness could maintain pressure on Japan's financial markets and raise concerns about fiscal strain, affecting the government bond market.
  • Uncertainty over whether authorities will move from verbal warnings to direct intervention creates risks for currency traders and import-dependent sectors.
  • Political timing with a snap election on February 8 adds uncertainty to policy direction, which could influence investor sentiment in both currency and bond markets.

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