Currencies February 2, 2026

Asia FX: Indian rupee rallies on U.S.-India trade accord; Aussie edges up ahead of RBA move

Rupee jumps after tariff cut announcement; Australian dollar holds gains as markets await RBA guidance on next tightening cycle

By Derek Hwang
Asia FX: Indian rupee rallies on U.S.-India trade accord; Aussie edges up ahead of RBA move

Most Asian currencies firmed on Tuesday as the Indian rupee posted a sharp rebound following a U.S.-India trade announcement. The Australian dollar ticked higher ahead of a widely anticipated Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase, while broader regional currencies showed tentative gains despite recent pressure from a stronger dollar.

Key Points

  • Indian rupee rallied sharply after a U.S.-India trade announcement that included a tariff cut to 18% from 50% and commitments by India to open markets and curb purchases of Russian oil - impacts trade and energy sectors.
  • Australian dollar rose ahead of a widely expected 25 basis point RBA rate hike, with recent inflation readings above the RBA’s 2% to 3% target range - relevant to monetary policy, housing and labor-sensitive sectors.
  • Broader Asian currencies showed marginal gains but were recovering from losses as the dollar strengthened following President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Federal Reserve chairman - affects financial markets and exporters/importers.

Asian currencies generally strengthened on Tuesday, led by a notable recovery in the Indian rupee after Washington and New Delhi announced a long-awaited trade agreement. The Australian dollar climbed modestly as markets prepared for a widely expected monetary policy move by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while the Japanese yen steadied following volatile trading amid uncertainty about potential official intervention.

Other currencies around the region registered modest gains on the day, but remained in the shadow of losses suffered during the prior two sessions when the U.S. dollar advanced after U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman.


Indian rupee posts biggest move

The Indian rupee stood out as the strongest performer on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair fell as much as 1.5% to its lowest level since mid-January, reflecting a sharp appreciation in the rupee. The move followed an announcement that the U.S. will reduce tariffs on goods from India to 18% from 50% under the newly revealed trade deal.

In return, the announcement said India will further open its markets and will also curb its purchases of Russian oil. The U.S. president disclosed the agreement via a social media post, but did not provide further specifics such as an effective date or a detailed list of concessions India will implement.


Aussie holds near multi-year highs ahead of RBA decision

The Australian dollar edged higher, with the AUD/USD pair up around 0.2% and trading close to a near three-year high. Market participants were positioned for a widely expected 25 basis point rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia later in the day, a move seen as an attempt to rein in a late-2025 resurgence in inflation.

Recent inflation data for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with consumer inflation and core measures running well above the RBA’s 2% to 3% annual target range. Beyond the immediate rate move, attention centered on whether the central bank will indicate a fresh tightening cycle. Strength in the labor market and the housing sector were flagged as potential factors that could prompt a hawkish RBA outlook.


Wider regional picture shaped by dollar dynamics

While many Asian currencies drifted higher on Tuesday, they were still recovering from pronounced losses over the previous two sessions as the dollar regained ground. The dollar index and dollar index futures both slipped about 0.1% during Asian trading, yet the greenback remained at an over one-week high as markets digested a less dovish expected trajectory for U.S. monetary policy under the Warsh nomination.

The stronger dollar put pressure on several regional currencies. The yen was among the most affected, with the USD/JPY pair trading back above 155 following worries about whether Japanese authorities might step in to support the currency. The uncertainty surrounding possible intervention contributed to the yen’s earlier whipsawing before it steadied.

Other moves across the region included a 0.3% fall in the USD/KRW pair after January consumer inflation in South Korea printed slightly softer than expected. The USD/CNY pair declined about 0.1% as the Chinese yuan remained an outlier in recent weeks, supported by a sequence of strong daily fixings that had pushed the currency to its strongest levels since mid-2023. The Taiwan dollar was largely flat against the dollar, while the Singapore dollar strengthened slightly as the USDSGD pair edged downward.


Overall, Tuesday’s trading reflected a mix of country-specific catalysts and broader currency market dynamics. The U.S.-India trade announcement delivered an immediate boost to the rupee, the RBA decision loomed large for the Australian dollar, and developments around U.S. monetary policy and Japanese intervention risks continued to shape sentiment across the region.

Risks

  • Timing and details of the U.S.-India trade pact remain unclear - the administration’s social media announcement did not specify when the agreement will take effect or the precise concessions India will make, creating uncertainty for trade and import-dependent sectors.
  • The RBA’s post-meeting language may determine whether markets view the rate move as the start of a new tightening cycle - this ambiguity could influence housing and labor market-sensitive sectors if the central bank signals a hawkish outlook.
  • Uncertainty over potential Japanese intervention to support the yen and a rebound in the U.S. dollar could continue to pressure regional currencies and create volatility in foreign exchange and export-oriented markets.

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