Following a recent decline below the $90,000 threshold, Bitcoin has climbed more than 7%, reclaiming its position above the 50-day moving average for the first time since its October peak. This rebound enhances the short-term technical outlook for the cryptocurrency. Wolfe Research analyst Rob Ginsberg describes this movement as a "positive signal" for short-term momentum and anticipates the rally may continue toward the 200-day moving average, located near $105,000.
However, Ginsberg cautions that this level is likely to serve as a significant hurdle, where upward momentum could pause. He underscores that the present surge should be interpreted primarily as a corrective bounce rather than the commencement of a sustained bull market for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has reached an overbought status for the first time since the October high, suggesting that the recent price action does not demonstrate strong investor inclination toward increased risk exposure.
"While this rebound might sustain itself for another week or so, we do not believe that the market is back on a full upward trajectory," Ginsberg wrote, indicating a need for prudence in expectations.
The year 2026 has seen Bitcoin underperform relative to altcoins, which have experienced pronounced recoveries after heavy selling in the prior year. Ginsberg notes that Bitcoin’s momentum is only beginning to show improvement against altcoins, highlighting a shift but not yet a decisive turnaround.
Looking beyond the immediate price action, the analyst points to the ongoing validity of the four-year cycle framework, which remains intact until Bitcoin establishes a new peak. Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks have occurred approximately 530 days into each cycle; the October high was registered around day 535.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, Ginsberg emphasizes that the current environment continues to be "gold-dominated." Bitcoin has yet to capitalize on much of the geopolitical or inflation-driven factors that have buoyed gold prices, indicating that it has not fully attracted investment interest relative to traditional safe-haven assets.