UBS on Monday increased its Brent crude price forecasts, saying the path of least resistance for oil remains upward while flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be restricted. In a note accompanying the change, the bank set a revised series of targets for Brent across the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027.
UBS now expects Brent to trade at $100 a barrel by the end of June 2026, $95 by the end of September 2026, and $90 by the end of December 2026. Looking further ahead, the bank projects Brent at $85 a barrel by the end of March 2027. The firm emphasized that these forecasts are subject to an elevated degree of uncertainty tied to how the conflict evolves and the timing and extent of disruptions to energy infrastructure and strait flows.
On scenarios for a deeper price reaction, UBS warned: "A prolonged disruption would raise the risk of a short-term price overshoot, with Brent potentially trading above $150 a barrel, while heightening the likelihood of demand destruction." The note also highlighted that "scarcity-driven hoarding could further amplify price swings."
Context from broker forecasts
The UBS update sits alongside a range of forecasts from other institutions that have recently updated their price targets for Brent and WTI. Those estimates, shown below as reported, reflect a wide dispersion in short- and medium-term expectations across brokerages and independent analysts.
- Goldman: $83, $80, $78, $75 - April 9, Trims 2Q
- Sachs: ($85 ($79 2026 2026 previo previ Brent, WTI usly) ously forecast ) to $90/$87
- ANZ: $92 %76 $88 $76 - April 9, 2026
- UBS: - - - - April 13, Expects 2026 prices to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec
- Macquarie: $89.28 $74.50 $82.9 $70 - March 27, If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
- Morgan Stanley: - $80 - - - March 24, Expects ($70 2026 Brent previo prices to usly) remain above $80/bbl for the rest of 2026
- J.P. Morgan: - $72 - - - March 20, Expects 2026 Brent prices averaging $100/bbl in Q2'26, $90/bbl in Q3'26 and $80/bbl in Q4'26
- Standard Chartered: $85.50 - Expects ($70 Brent to previo average usly) $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26
- Bank of America (BofA): $77.50 $66 - $61 - March 16, Expects ($61 ($62 ($59 2026 Brent to previo previo 9 average usly) usly) pre $80/bbl in vio Q2'26, but usl average y) $76/bbl in Q3'26
- Barclays: $85 - - - March 13, But if the Strait of Hormuz takes 4-6 weeks to normalise, forecasts could assume the Strait of Hormuz normalises in 2-3 weeks and Brent could climb to the $100/bbl
- BMI: $70 $70 $68 $68 - March 12, Expects ($67 2026 Brent to previo average usly) $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3'26 and Q4'26, respectively
- Citi: $71 $64 $68 $61 - March 11, Anticipate ($63 60 2026 s Brent previo previ averaging usly) ously $75/bbl in Q1'26, $78/bbl in Q2'26, and $68/bbl in Q3'26
- HSBC: $80 $70 $76 $67 - March 10
The presentation above reproduces the reported forecasts and annotations as provided. It shows a mixture of point forecasts, quarterly averages and conditional scenarios, with some firms explicitly linking near-term moves to the duration of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Implications and market channels
UBS' upward revision underscores how restricted flows through the Strait of Hormuz are creating a bias toward higher crude prices. The bank's scenario analysis points to three market channels that matter: physical disruption to flows and energy infrastructure, the potential for scarcity-driven hoarding that could exacerbate price swings, and the risk that very high prices could lead to demand destruction. Those channels affect oil markets directly and carry through to energy sector revenues and broader market sentiment.
UBS made clear that the forecasts carry elevated uncertainty and are conditional on how the conflict evolves and on when and what energy infrastructure is disrupted. That conditionality is central to the bank's warning about both sharp upside in the short term and the possibility of demand deterioration if high prices persist.