OPEC+ is likely to maintain a planned pause on adding oil output for March when ministers meet later on Sunday, three OPEC+ delegates said, despite a recent rally in crude prices driven in part by geopolitical concerns.
Brent crude closed near $70 a barrel on Friday, having reached a six-month peak of $71.89 on Thursday. The price advance has occurred amid market worries about a possible U.S. military strike on Iran.
The meeting involves eight OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman - who previously raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day for the period from April through December 2025, equal to roughly 3% of global demand. Following that adjustment, the same group froze additional planned increases for January through March 2026, citing seasonally weaker consumption.
Sunday’s session is scheduled to begin at 1330 GMT, two sources said. Delegates indicated the gathering is not expected to take decisions on production policy beyond March. A separate OPEC+ panel, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee - the JMMC - is also due to meet on Sunday; that panel does not hold decision-making authority on production volumes.
Market participants have pointed to several factors supporting the recent strength in oil prices. Heightened geopolitical risk has been a key driver: U.S. options under consideration regarding Iran reportedly include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to galvanize protesters. Washington has also imposed wide-ranging sanctions on Tehran aimed at cutting off oil revenues, a major source of state funding.
Both the U.S. and Iran have indicated some willingness to engage in dialogue, though Tehran stated on Friday that its defence capabilities should not be part of any talks. Such diplomatic signals, and the associated uncertainty, have contributed to upward pressure on benchmark prices.
Supply-side disruptions have added to the tightness. Kazakhstan’s oil sector has experienced a string of interruptions in recent months; the country announced on Wednesday that it was restarting the large Tengiz oilfield in stages. Those production losses have provided additional support to crude benchmarks.
In sum, delegates expect the OPEC+ group to stick with the planned March pause on further output increases when it meets on Sunday, with the meeting focused on the near-term stance rather than longer-term production commitments.
Contact: Delegates and committee members attending the meetings