The planned OPEC+ review intended to assess member countries' production capacity ahead of 2027 quota-setting has been delayed, officials say. Originally ordered for all members in late 2025 and due to conclude by the end of September, the review is now expected to be completed by mid-November.
The postponement comes after the US-Israeli war on Iran interrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East, causing setbacks to work that would have increased output potential in several OPEC+ countries. Those project delays have made it more difficult to estimate how much oil each member can sustainably produce.
The review's purpose is to produce an independent evaluation of sustained production capacity for each OPEC+ participant - a measure that feeds directly into negotiations over next cycle output targets. Where assessed capacity is reduced, countries may be pressured to accept lower quotas. Conversely, members that have expanded capacity may seek higher allocations.
Not all required data for the review has been submitted by members, according to the reporting. The identity of the countries that have not provided their data was not disclosed.
Recent alliance frictions are part of the backdrop to the review. The United Arab Emirates exited the OPEC+ alliance in May after pressing for a larger quota to reflect its rising production capacity. Iraq has also requested a higher quota and has considered leaving OPEC, adding further complexity to quota negotiations.
Context and mechanics
The capacity review is a formal evaluation ordered for all OPEC+ members that aims to quantify each country's sustainable production capability. This metric is central in determining how output targets are divided among members, affecting global supply management.
Delays to capacity projects and incomplete data submissions reduce the review panel's ability to form precise assessments, which in turn complicates the next round of quota negotiations. The rescheduling to mid-November reflects an attempt to allow more time for project work to resume and for members to submit the necessary information.
What this means
The deferral of the review introduces uncertainty into the quota-setting process for 2027. Countries that see their assessed capacity reduced could face pressure to accept smaller quotas, while those with confirmed capacity growth will likely renew efforts to secure larger shares of the alliance's output allocation. The combination of project delays and incomplete data submissions means negotiators will be working with a less certain view of each country's long-term output potential.
Given the current information scope, the timeline has shifted but the review remains underway with a new target completion of mid-November.