Oil markets are projected to remain around the $60-per-barrel threshold in 2026 as an expected surplus dampens the price impact of recent geopolitical disruptions, according to a January poll of 31 economists and analysts.
The survey produced a modest upward revision for Brent crude, which is now forecast to average $62.02 per barrel in 2026, up from a December projection of $61.27. At the time of the poll Brent was trading near $70 on January 30, having averaged about $68.20 over the previous year. For U.S. crude the panel estimated an average of $58.72 per barrel for 2026, slightly higher than December’s $58.15 estimate; U.S. crude prices averaged $64.73 in 2025.
Respondents highlighted a tension between supply-side risks arising from geopolitical developments and broader market fundamentals that point to persistent oversupply. Specific geopolitical risks cited in the poll include U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to Iran, expanded sanctions on Russia, and unrest across the Middle East. While these events could threaten cargo flows, analysts in the survey said their effects may be outweighed by underlying surplus conditions.
"Geopolitics brings lots of noise but neither the events in Venezuela nor Iran should ultimately alter the big picture. The oil market appears to be in a lasting surplus," said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics & next generation research at Julius Baer.
Polling participants put the expected surplus in a range from 0.75 million barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels per day. They also flagged three other variables that will influence prices through the year: shifts in U.S. trade policy, the direction of China’s oil demand, and the next steps taken by the OPEC+ coalition.
On the subject of Venezuelan output, analysts broadly expect any material production increases to be a multi-year process after the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month. Trade flow specialist Kpler projected that Venezuelan shipments will fall through April because of a U.S. crackdown on tankers tied to sanctions, but that flows should recover in the second half of the year as dormant infrastructure is brought back online.
Kpler added that production growth beyond this near-term rebound would require sustained capital investment, prolonged political stability, replacement of ageing facilities, and the participation of international firms to restore and expand capacity.
Policy decisions by OPEC+ are another focal point for markets. Delegates from the coalition indicated that at an upcoming meeting they are unlikely to commit to actions extending beyond March. The group’s membership had previously raised oil output targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day during the past year but subsequently paused further increases for the first quarter of 2026.
"OPEC+ will defend a price floor while also watching its market share. If consumption grows enough, the coalition could carefully increase output to meet rising demand without flooding the market," said Cyrus De La Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.
With the poll showing only modest upgrades to 2026 forecasts and a consensus that a surplus is likely to persist, market participants will be watching geopolitical developments, the pace of any Venezuelan production recovery, Chinese demand trends, and OPEC+ decisions for signals that could shift the price trajectory.