JP Morgan late on Sunday set a year-end target of $6,300 per ounce for gold, attributing the expected rise to demand from central banks and investors. The bank framed its outlook within a longer-term shift in reserve composition and investor appetites for real assets.
On Monday, gold continued to weaken, trading at $4,677.17 per ounce as of 0450 GMT, after an earlier intra-session drop exceeding 5% that took the metal to its lowest level in more than two weeks. The metal had reached an all-time high of $5,594.82 on Thursday prior to the recent pullback.
"We remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets," the brokerage said in a note.
As part of its outlook, JP Morgan raised its forecast for central-bank gold purchases to 800 tonnes in 2026, citing what it described as an ongoing, unexhausted trend of reserve diversification. That central-bank demand is a central element in the bank's case for higher gold prices over time.
Silver's recent behavior has been more volatile and harder to attribute to single drivers, the bank warned. With silver near $80 an ounce since late December, JP Morgan said the forces supporting the rally have become more difficult to pinpoint and quantify, prompting a more cautious stance on the metal.
Spot silver fell by more than 6% on Monday to $78.90 per ounce. The white metal had posted a record high of $121.64 on Thursday and subsequently moved down to a near one-month low on Friday.
JP Morgan highlighted a structural difference between the two metals: central banks act as persistent, structural dip buyers for gold, a support that is absent for silver. Because of that distinction, the bank noted the possibility that the gold-to-silver ratio could move higher again in the coming weeks.
"We still do see a higher floor for silver on average (around $75-$80/oz) for now vs our previous expectations as, even after overshooting in its catch-up to gold, silver is unlikely to fully relinquish its gains," JP Morgan said.
The brokerage's outlook underscores a strong conviction in the broad demand picture for gold, while flagging greater near-term uncertainty for silver due to the absence of the same structural buyers and recent sharp price swings.