April 9 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted down its oil price projections for the second quarter of 2026, cutting its forecast for Brent crude to $90 a barrel and for U.S. crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) to $87 a barrel. The move, disclosed late on Wednesday, follows a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
Prior to the revision, the bank had expected Brent to average $99 a barrel and WTI to average $91 a barrel in the second quarter. In a note explaining the change, Goldman Sachs said markets appear to have pared the near-term risk premium and that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have already shown signs of picking up.
"Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI," the bank said.
Market moves earlier in the week reflected the potential for the strait to reopen after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, with Brent crude falling more than 11% so far this week on those hopes. Nonetheless, prices climbed in the early Asia session on Thursday as traders weighed concerns that supplies from the Middle East might not fully resume if the ceasefire fails to hold and because the strait remained subject to restrictions.
Goldman also published its third- and fourth-quarter price projections, putting Brent at $82 and $80 a barrel for Q3 and Q4 respectively, and WTI at $77 and $75 a barrel for the corresponding quarters.
The bank cautioned that risks to its forecasts are tilted to the upside. It noted the possibility of longer-lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses. In a severe scenario in which the ceasefire does not hold and Middle East production losses persist at roughly 2 million barrels per day, Goldman said Brent could average closer to $115 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
Context and market implications
Goldman Sachs linked its Q2 downward revisions to a smaller immediate risk premium and preliminary signs of increased flows via the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the bank maintained a cautious posture, flagging conditions under which prices could move materially higher later in the year.