Overview
Dutch TTF gas benchmarks have strengthened sharply into early 2026, driven in part by colder weather projections that tighten regional gas supplies and accelerate withdrawals from storage. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its outlook to reflect these dynamics, increasing its 2026 price forecast and lowering expected end-season inventory levels under current forward curves.
Weather and consumption assumptions
Goldman Sachs estimates January will be around 1.5 standard deviations colder than average across northwest Europe. That colder profile lifts the bank's assumption for regional gas consumption by 11% compared with its prior expectations. The bank also notes colder conditions elsewhere in Europe have elevated pipeline outflows from northwest Europe, intensifying southbound flows and influencing regional balances.
Storage trajectory
Under current forward prices, Goldman now projects end-March 2026 gas storage in Europe to be roughly 16% full, a marked decline from its earlier estimate of 28%. The firm has likewise trimmed its end-October 2026 storage projection to 76% full from a prior 84%, following an already weak October 2025 fill of 75%.
Market price moves
Prices have reacted to the tightening fundamentals. Prompt TTF rose about 30% week-on-week to approximately €37 per megawatt hour (MWh), while the 2026 calendar contract gained near 16%, reaching about €31 per MWh. These moves have been concentrated in nearer-term contracts; longer-dated prices have moved more modestly.
Goldman highlights that prompt strength has shifted TTF out of the lignite switching range and back into the hard-coal switching range. That shift reduces the commercial incentive for gas-fired power generation relative to coal, according to the bank. Movements further out the forward curve have been more muted, with only limited upside evident in 2027 contracts and little change to longer-dated prices.
Revised forecasts and rationale
In response to the altered near-term fundamentals and higher carbon prices, Goldman has raised its 2026 TTF forecast to €36 per MWh from €29 per MWh. The bank's updated path anticipates a higher average in the first half of 2026 and a lower level in the second half, a profile it views as sufficient to discourage gas demand in power generation and help rebuild storage toward its target.
Goldman has also slightly increased its 2027 TTF forecast to €23 per MWh, driven in part by the same dynamics around carbon prices. The bank notes that carbon emission prices have climbed sharply in recent months, which raises the gas price needed to make fuel switching from gas to coal economic. As a result, gas needs to be relatively more expensive versus coal than previously assumed.
Medium-term and longer-term view
Despite the nearer-term tightening, Goldman remains bearish on the longer-term outlook for TTF. The firm points to what it describes as a very large global LNG oversupply that should weigh on European prices in 2028 and 2029, bringing prices down to levels that would curb marginal LNG supply and allow inventories to be managed.
Goldman's team also makes an operational judgment about storage behavior. While the bank acknowledges scope for gas-to-coal switching in power generation if prices rise further, it does not expect the market to push end-summer storage close to full. "We don’t think the market will necessarily look to take end-summer storage levels to close to full, given the ongoing rise in global LNG supply, which increases gas availability, including in winter months," Samantha Dart, co-head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, said in a note. Instead, Goldman sees a more modest target of at least 80% full by the end of October 2026.
Implications
The combination of colder weather, a knock-on lift to near-term gas consumption, higher carbon prices, and concentrated strength in prompt contracts has produced a near-term repricing in European gas markets and led Goldman to lift its 2026 TTF view. However, the firm still expects abundant global LNG supply to exert downward pressure on prices beyond the immediate winter-spring window.
Note: This article reports Goldman Sachs forecasts and the price and storage figures they have provided under current forward curves.