Goldman Sachs maintained its average crude price forecasts for 2026, saying that a moderation in oil demand and a reduction in supply disruptions have effectively balanced risks to its outlook. The bank kept its Brent forecast at $83 a barrel and its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast at $78 a barrel for 2026.
Central to Goldman's baseline view is an assumption that flows through the Strait of Hormuz - a key shipping lane through which roughly 20% of the worlds oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transit - will gradually return to normal by mid-May. The firm said its forecasts reflect that expected normalization.
Goldman noted recent market moves tied to geopolitical developments. Crude prices fell by about 9% on Friday after reports of progress toward a potential peace deal. The bank warned that such developments could prompt a quicker unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium, which would likely push prices lower in the near term.
At the same time, Goldman emphasized that the two sides involved have not yet negotiated a permanent peace agreement. Public comments continue to reflect ongoing uncertainty: U.S. President Donald Trump again suggested the war could end soon in remarks referencing expected weekend talks with Tehran, while Irans Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the strait was open following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
On the supply side, Goldman said downside risks have risen if Persian Gulf output recovers faster than currently anticipated. Such a recovery could be aided by lower-than-expected production shut-ins and significant regional storage capacity, reducing the need for elevated prices to clear the market.
Demand-side concerns also factor prominently in Goldman's risk assessment. The bank highlighted pronounced weakness in oil consumption, particularly for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel, which it linked to elevated refined product prices and margins. Preliminary estimates cited by Goldman indicate that global demand losses in early 2026 have been larger than those associated with more dramatic oil-price spikes in 2011 and 2022.
Demand weakness, the bank added, has been most visible in emerging markets across Asia and Africa, where consumption tends to be more sensitive to higher prices. Taken together, these supply and demand dynamics create two-sided risks to the 2026 price outlook, prompting Goldman to retain its central forecasts while flagging scenarios that could send prices lower.