Commodities January 30, 2026

Chevron posts Q4 results above estimates, eyes expanded Venezuela work amid geopolitical focus

Company trims costs to offset weaker crude prices and signals disciplined capital approach as it weighs further investments in Venezuela

By Jordan Park
Chevron posts Q4 results above estimates, eyes expanded Venezuela work amid geopolitical focus

Chevron reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings that beat analyst expectations despite a year-over-year decline, as the company pursued cost reductions and operational efficiency to deal with anticipated lower crude prices through 2025. The U.S. supermajor, currently the only American oil producer active in Venezuela, said it is assessing additional opportunities in the country after recent U.S. policy changes and geopolitical developments. Management reiterated a cautious capital posture while outlining production and returns metrics for shareholders.

Key Points

  • Chevron reported adjusted earnings of $1.52 per share for Q4, above the LSEG consensus of $1.45 but down from $2.06 a year earlier - impacts energy sector earnings and investor returns.
  • The company produces 250,000 boe/d in Venezuela and says output could rise 50% within 18 to 24 months with additional U.S. government authorizations - this affects geopolitical risk considerations and potential oil supply.
  • Total production was 4 million boepd in Q4 (flat quarter-to-quarter, up year-over-year after acquiring Hess); Chevron expects 2026 production to grow 7% to 10%, supported by Guyana and U.S. Gulf of Mexico projects.

Chevron’s fourth-quarter results reflected a narrower profit footprint compared with a year earlier but exceeded market estimates as management emphasized cost control and efficiency measures to navigate a period of softer crude pricing projected for 2025. The company, identified as the only U.S. oil producer operating in Venezuela and now under increased geopolitical scrutiny following the U.S. capture and removal of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro this month, said it is evaluating further investment opportunities in that country.

For the three-month period ended December 31, Chevron reported adjusted earnings of $1.52 per share, topping an LSEG consensus estimate of $1.45 per share. The fourth-quarter per-share figure declined from $2.06 in the same quarter a year earlier.


Venezuela stance and capacity potential

Citing long-term potential in Venezuela, Chevron said the country represents an area for growth if circumstances allow. "We have been a part of Venezuela’s past for more than a century. We remain committed to its present. And we stand ready to help it build a better future while strengthening U.S. energy and regional security," CEO Mike Wirth said in a company statement.

Chevron currently produces 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Venezuela. The company said it could lift that output by 50% within 18 to 24 months with additional U.S. government authorizations, according to CFO Eimear Bonner in an interview. Bonner reiterated comments she made during a White House meeting between President Donald Trump and oil executives earlier this month.

Bonner also stressed a disciplined approach to any incremental spending tied to Venezuela opportunities. "As we look for opportunities to grow, we will stay disciplined around capital, just as we always are," she said.

The Trump administration eased some sanctions on Venezuela on Thursday as part of an effort to revitalize oil production there.


Production, segment performance and shareholder returns

Chevron reported total oil production of 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during the fourth quarter, a level that was flat compared with the previous quarter but higher than a year earlier following the company’s acquisition of smaller oil firm Hess. Management cited particularly strong performance in Kazakhstan, the Permian Basin and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

Upstream earnings fell 30% year-over-year to $3 billion in the quarter. Downstream results swung to a positive $823 million, recovering from a loss of $248 million in the comparable period, with the company attributing the improvement to higher margins on refined product sales.

Chevron returned capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, paying $12.8 billion in dividends in 2025 and repurchasing $12.1 billion of shares. The repurchase amount sat at the low end of the company’s previously stated guidance range of $10 billion to $20 billion.


Outlook

Looking ahead, Chevron expects production in 2026 to increase by 7% to 10%, driven in part by projects in Guyana and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Management’s forward-looking production range reflects planned project contributions but remains framed by the company’s emphasis on capital discipline.


Conclusion

Chevron’s fourth-quarter results underscore a company managing through a lower-price environment by prioritizing efficiency and cost control while keeping optionality for growth in geopolitically sensitive areas such as Venezuela. Financial metrics showed mixed segment performance, with upstream weakening year-over-year and downstream margins improving, and shareholder returns remained substantial though buybacks landed at the lower bound of guidance.

Risks

  • Lower crude prices throughout 2025 could pressure revenue and earnings across oil producers and energy-related markets.
  • Any increase in Venezuelan output depends on additional U.S. government authorizations and evolving sanction policies, creating uncertainty for project timelines and investment plans in the country.
  • Geopolitical developments, including the recent U.S. capture and removal of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the spotlight on Venezuela, introduce political and regulatory risk that could affect operations and regional energy security.

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