Overview
Bernstein has revised up its long-term price expectations for gold, arguing that sustained flows from large institutional holders and a more favorable macro backdrop could lift the metal substantially by the end of the decade. The firm now forecasts gold at $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 per ounce by 2030.
Demand framework
The research update introduces an analytical emphasis on net institutional demand - specifically the combined roles of central bank purchases and ETF flows - and on how prospective U.S. interest-rate moves may affect the metal.
“Recently, gold demand has been primarily driven by central bank purchase and ETF flows,” Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett said in a note.
Central bank acquisitions, while expected to ease in 2025 relative to recent peaks, remain at levels well above those seen before 2022. Survey results cited by Bernstein indicate that 95% of central banks expect their global gold reserves to rise over the coming year, and 73% anticipate lowering the share of U.S. dollar holdings in their reserves over a five-year horizon. These survey signals are factored into the firm’s assumptions about ongoing reserve diversification.
ETF flows as a swing factor
Bernstein characterizes ETF flows as the swing element of institutional demand. The note highlights that ETF holdings have climbed strongly since mid-2024, and that such funds can play a pro-cyclical role - amplifying price moves when inflows accelerate.
Macro outlook and rate cuts
The firm also points to the macroeconomic backdrop. Market pricing implies two to three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, a development Bernstein says would be supportive of gold prices. The note references a historical observation that bullion has risen an average of 6.53% over the 12 months following rate cuts.
“We can apply this estimate to the number of potential rate cuts. With the market currently pricing in at least two cuts in 2026, this implies a potential total return of around 13%,” Brackett wrote.
Structural drivers and company implications
Looking past near-term dynamics, Bernstein points to structural factors such as reserve diversification efforts and an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit as additional support for the bullish case on gold.
The research note also led Bernstein to upgrade Newmont Goldcorp to Outperform, assigning a $157 price target. The firm cited a 26% lift in its EBITDA forecast for the company, now projected at $21.9 billion, as a direct consequence of its more bullish gold outlook.
Risks
Bernstein flags downside scenarios that could undermine the forecast, including a slowdown in central bank purchases and the possibility of higher real interest rates. Both developments could weigh on ETF flows and press gold prices lower.
Reporter’s note: This article summarizes the contents of Bernstein’s latest research update without introducing additional data beyond what the firm presented.