Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Wolfe: Roblox Weekly CCUs Fall 10.6% as Q1 Engagement Moderates

Concurrent users down from last week’s peak; mixed analyst targets underscore divergent outlooks for growth and monetization

By Nina Shah RBLX
Wolfe: Roblox Weekly CCUs Fall 10.6% as Q1 Engagement Moderates
RBLX

Wolfe reports Roblox’s concurrent user count fell to roughly 22.8 million, a 10.6% decline from last week’s high. First quarter-to-date average CCUs eased to 16.9 million, reflecting slower year-over-year expansion. While the company has reported strong trailing revenue growth, analyst price targets and recent sector moves highlight differing views on near-term prospects.

Key Points

  • Roblox CCUs fell to roughly 22.8 million, a 10.6% weekly decline; the stock dropped 15.1% over the past week - sectors impacted: gaming, equities.
  • Q1-to-date average CCUs are 16.9 million, indicating a slowdown to 71% year-over-year growth versus last quarter’s equivalent 18.0 million - sectors impacted: gaming, digital consumer engagement.
  • Top experiences show mixed engagement trends: some titles grew substantially while others declined sharply; trailing twelve-month revenue rose 32.7% - sectors impacted: gaming, digital advertising.

Research from Wolfe shows Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) concurrent users - commonly called CCUs - totaled about 22.8 million, a drop of 10.6% from the previous week’s peak. That decline is consistent with recent stock volatility; InvestingPro data indicates the shares fell 15.1% over the past week.

Wolfe’s report also indicates the first quarter-to-date average CCUs reached 16.9 million, a pace that represents a deceleration to 71% year-over-year growth. By comparison, last quarter’s equivalent quarter-to-date average stood at 18.0 million, signaling a moderation in engagement growth as the quarter progresses.

Despite the slowdown in CCU growth, InvestingPro metrics show Roblox delivered 32.7% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months. Analysts referenced in the report continue to model sales expansion for the current year, even as engagement metrics show mixed momentum.

The report breaks down activity across several of the platform’s most-played experiences. "Escape Tsunami for Brainrots!" registered strong traffic, with peak visits reaching 158 million and its trailing seven-day average visits increasing 42.5% week-over-week. By contrast, "Steal a Brainrot" posted a much smaller weekly gain, with its trailing seven-day average visits up 1.7% week-over-week but down 21.5% compared with three weeks earlier.

Other leading experiences recorded weakening activity. "99 Nights in the Forest" saw its trailing seven-day average visits fall 7.6% week-over-week and 39.5% from three weeks prior. "Brookhaven RP" experienced a 7.3% week-over-week decline and a 26.1% decline from three weeks ago. Among tracked titles, "Fish It!" registered the steepest short-term drop, with its trailing seven-day average visits down 19.1% week-over-week and off 32.5% from three weeks prior.

The report also summarizes recent analyst and industry developments that bear on investor sentiment. Oppenheimer has maintained an Outperform rating with a $150 price target after reviewing Roblox’s age verification system and concluding the new system produced no material effect on monetization or player engagement. Jefferies, however, trimmed its price target to $85 and flagged concerns about the company’s growth outlook for 2026. BMO Capital remains constructive with an Outperform rating and a $155 price target, citing the emergence of a new breakout game on the platform. Wells Fargo adjusted its target to $107, noting moderating growth forecasts for 2026 and a revised bookings growth estimate of 21% year-over-year.

Outside of Roblox-specific coverage, the report notes an industry transaction: Super League’s acquisition of Let’s Bounce to bolster gaming ad measurement capabilities. That move is described as intended to improve profitability through more efficient in-game marketing.

Taken together, the engagement data and the range of analyst actions reflect a mix of optimistic and cautious perspectives across the gaming and media ecosystems. The data show robust trailing revenue expansion even as weekly and short-term engagement measures for several major experiences have softened.

Risks

  • Slowing concurrent user growth may pressure monetization trends and investor expectations - sectors impacted: gaming companies, online advertising.
  • Divergent analyst price targets and downgrades signal uncertainty about 2026 growth prospects and bookings forecasts - sectors impacted: equity investors, sell-side coverage.
  • Marked variability in engagement across flagship experiences could affect revenue stability and content-driven retention strategies - sectors impacted: platform operators and developers.

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