Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

Wolfe Research Sticks with Outperform on ASML After Strong Q4; 2026 Revenue Guide Raised

Robust bookings and a higher 2026 revenue midpoint underpin analyst optimism, though the pace of 2027 acceleration remains uncertain

By Nina Shah ASML
Wolfe Research Sticks with Outperform on ASML After Strong Q4; 2026 Revenue Guide Raised
ASML

Wolfe Research maintained an Outperform rating on ASML with a EUR1,400 price target after the company reported fourth-quarter results above expectations and issued first-quarter guidance well ahead of consensus. ASML also lifted its calendar year 2026 revenue midpoint to €36.5 billion, an increase of 12% from prior guidance and above consensus of €35.2 billion. Fourth-quarter bookings of €13.2 billion - up 85% year-over-year - provide a strong revenue backlog that is expected to feed growth into 2026 and 2027, though the magnitude of 2027 acceleration remains unclear.

Key Points

  • Wolfe Research reaffirmed an Outperform rating on ASML with a EUR1,400 price target after Q4 results beat expectations and Q1 guidance topped consensus.
  • ASML raised its 2026 revenue midpoint to €36.5 billion, up 12% and above consensus of €35.2 billion, underpinning a forecast of low-teens WFE growth in 2026 with acceleration expected in 2027.
  • Fourth-quarter bookings of €13.2 billion - an 85% year-over-year increase - create a substantial backlog likely to support 2026 revenue and early 2027 shipments; impacts are most significant for the semiconductor equipment sector and related capital goods markets.

Wolfe Research has reaffirmed an Outperform rating on ASML (ticker: ASML) and kept a price target of EUR1,400, citing the companys recent quarterly results and forward guidance. The research house highlighted fourth-quarter results that outpaced expectations and noted that first-quarter guidance came in significantly above consensus estimates.

ASML raised its calendar year 2026 revenue outlook, increasing the midpoint by 12% to €36.5 billion - a level that sits above consensus forecasts of €35.2 billion. Wolfe Research pointed to these revisions as consistent with its view of low-teens wafer fabrication equipment - WFE - growth for 2026, with an expectation that growth will accelerate in 2027.

Bookings for the fourth quarter totaled €13.2 billion, a substantial 85% increase from the same quarter a year earlier. Wolfe Research emphasized that the scale of these orders creates a solid base for 2026 revenue and establishes a head start for 2027, because a significant portion of the bookings are likely to ship in 2027.

While Wolfe Research flagged that the precise magnitude of any 2027 acceleration is still unclear, the firms read of the bookings commentary was constructive. It expects that consensus estimates will be revised upward in response to the results and guidance, and noted that the market reaction to the report - positive despite already-elevated expectations - suggests room for further share-price appreciation for ASML and potentially for the broader semiconductor equipment sector.


Additional coverage from market participants mirrored the upbeat tone on ASMLs order and revenue performance. The company reported record net revenue of €9.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 5% increase year-over-year and a 29% increase sequentially, narrowly exceeding consensus of €9.6 billion. Orders for the quarter reached €13.2 billion, figures described as materially ahead of expectations.

Market participants have retained constructive ratings following the report. One firm reiterated an Overweight rating and set a $1,518 price target, citing exceptional order performance. Another maintained a Buy rating with a EUR1,454 price target after the earnings release. The revenue results also included the recognition of two High-NA systems, which contributors characterized as a positive element for the outlook. On a full-year basis, ASML posted a 16% increase in revenue.

Taken together, the quarter delivered both stronger near-term revenue and a sizeable order backlog supporting future shipments. Analysts expect upward revisions to consensus estimates, though some uncertainty remains about how rapidly growth will accelerate beyond 2026.

Risks

  • Timing risk from a large backlog - many bookings are likely to ship in 2027, creating execution and timing uncertainty that affects revenue recognition and supply-chain planning in the semiconductor equipment and wafer fabrication sectors.
  • Forecast uncertainty for 2027 growth - while acceleration is expected, the article notes the magnitude remains unclear, introducing forecasting risk for analysts and investors in the semiconductor equipment industry.
  • Market expectations are elevated - the positive stock reaction despite high expectations suggests potential volatility if future results or guidance fail to meet raised consensus estimates, impacting technology and capital markets exposure.

More from Analyst Ratings

Palantir Gains After Lofty 2026 Guidance; Analysts Split on Outlook Feb 2, 2026 Freedom Capital Markets Starts Coverage of Nebius Group With Buy Rating, $108 Target Feb 2, 2026 Clear Street Starts Coverage on Caribou Biosciences with Buy Rating and $13 Target Feb 2, 2026 Goldman Keeps OLN Neutral at $22 as Olin Signals Rough Q1, Cost Cuts to Cushion Results Feb 2, 2026 Aletheia Capital Starts Coverage on Teradyne With Buy Rating, $400 Target Feb 2, 2026