Wolfe Research moved Exelon (NASDAQ:EXC) down one notch on the firms internal rating scale, shifting the stock from Outperform to Peerperform. The downgrade centers on regulatory friction in key jurisdictions and broader concerns about energy affordability that the firm says will weigh on utility operations.
Exelon currently carries a market capitalization of $45 billion and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.93. Wolfe Research observed that the shares change hands at roughly 14 times 2028 earnings, about two turns cheaper than the peer group median, but the firm highlighted regulatory and affordability risks as offsetting considerations for a higher rating.
Trading history suggests limited price volatility for the stock; five-year beta data indicates a relatively low sensitivity to the broader market. Wolfe Research emphasized that all of Exelons regulated utilities operate inside the PJM regional transmission organization, where recent spikes in commodity and capacity charges have stoked concerns about the affordability of electricity for customers and the political scrutiny that can follow.
Political dynamics figure into Wolfe Researchs view. Gubernatorial elections are scheduled this year in every state where Exelon has significant utility operations except New Jersey, a factor the analyst flagged as a potential source of regulatory change or heightened policy attention. While Wolfe Research suggested incumbents face limited reelection risk, the presence of campaigns and potential shifts in tone around energy affordability remain relevant to multi-year rate negotiations.
On the operating and financial front, Exelons expected 2026 guidance aligns with consensus estimates of approximately $2.80 to $2.85 per share, and the company is projected to sustain a 5-7% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share through 2029. The company has a long history of returning cash to shareholders, having paid dividends for 55 consecutive years and currently offering a yield of 3.63%.
Wolfe Research acknowledged material growth opportunities, including a $10-15 billion transmission expansion opportunity and a substantial pipeline of data center-related work. Nonetheless, the analyst stopped short of forecasting a higher rate of long-term earnings growth given several principal uncertainties: the status of multi-year rate plans in Maryland, upcoming rate-case filings for PECO and the companys Illinois utilities, and the broader affordability environment following recent price movements in PJM.
Analyst price targets for the stock span a wide range from $39 to $57, and Exelon is set to announce quarterly results in 16 days, a near-term event that could provide additional clarity on several of these themes.
Separate corporate developments provide additional context for the companys strategy and stakeholder engagement. Exelon recently added $10 million to its Customer Relief Fund to help households facing higher energy bills this winter, bringing the companys direct customer assistance to $60 million over the past year. The company was also selected, alongside NextEra Energy Transmission, to develop a 220-mile transmission line across Pennsylvania and segments of West Virginia under a regional plan adopted by PJM in 2025 aimed at strengthening grid reliability.
On the executive front, Exelon named Tim Peterson as executive vice president and chief customer and technology officer, with the appointment effective in February. Peterson joins from Xcel Energy, where he held senior roles in information and technology management.
Financial coverage around Exelon has shifted recently as well. RBC Capital initiated coverage with a Sector Perform rating and set a price target of $51.00, an upward revision from a prior target of $42.00.
The combination of regulatory uncertainty in key jurisdictions, upcoming rate filings, and affordability pressures in PJM contributed to Wolfe Researchs decision to temper expectations for Exelons relative performance. At the same time, steady near-term guidance, a multi-decade dividend record, and sizable infrastructure opportunities provide offsetting factors that investors will weigh ahead of the companys imminent earnings report.