Wolfe Research has raised its price target on ASML Holding NV to EUR 1,450.00 from EUR 1,400.00 and kept an Outperform rating on the semiconductor equipment manufacturer. The stock is trading at $1,422.92, the company carries a market capitalization of $569.44 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.29. Data from InvestingPro shows ASML trading slightly above its Fair Value and sitting close to a 52-week high of $1,493.47.
The analyst update followed ASML's strong quarterly results and forward guidance, including robust fourth-quarter bookings. Notably, this quarter will be the last in which the company reports quarterly booking figures. For calendar year 2026, ASML has provided revenue guidance that points to 12% year-over-year growth, a clearer improvement from earlier commentary that suggested revenue might not decline year-over-year.
ASML's recent performance includes revenue growth of 15.58% over the last twelve months. Analysts continue to expect 7% revenue growth for fiscal year 2026, but Wolfe's models now look further ahead. The research firm emphasized that the majority of fourth-quarter bookings are scheduled for delivery in 2027, a timing detail that underpins its more optimistic outlook for that year.
Based on the new bookings profile, Wolfe Research revised its estimates to reflect 22% year-over-year revenue growth for 2027, including 27% year-over-year systems growth. Those projections drive earnings per share of EUR 36.81 for 2027 under Wolfe's assumptions. From a valuation perspective, the stock is being valued at roughly 32 times 2027 earnings - modestly above its historical multiple, according to the research note, which the firm suggests leaves room for upside should visibility into 2027 strengthen.
InvestingPro's analysis assigns ASML an overall financial health score of 3.14, rated as "GREAT," with particular strengths identified in profit metrics and price momentum. The platform also references a detailed Pro Research Report on ASML that is available to subscribers.
One important element shaping the outlook is China revenue exposure. Wolfe Research expects China revenue to decline by 35% year-over-year in 2026, moving toward what it describes as a normalized level of around 20% of total revenue. The firm frames this reduction as a favorable derisking of ASML's China estimates.
Wolfe also believes ASML's existing backlog already covers most of the company's 2026 needs, and that the strong fourth-quarter bookings provide a solid foundation for 2027. Those factors informed Wolfe's decision to increase its 2027 revenue and systems assumptions.
Separately, ASML reported record orders and an upbeat outlook for 2026 in recent company disclosures. The firm announced its strongest-ever order intake of EUR 13.1 billion, a 144% increase from the prior quarter, with extreme ultraviolet (EUV) orders totaling EUR 7.4 billion. ASML also provided first-quarter guidance that was above consensus and projected 2026 revenue to rise by 12% to a midpoint of EUR 36.5 billion.
The strong order environment drew a number of analyst responses. Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight, citing increased lithography requirements tied to a surge in AI infrastructure demand. TD Cowen raised its price target to EUR 1,500 while maintaining a Buy rating, and Jefferies increased its price target to EUR 1,260 after noting ASML's Q4-25 order intake of EUR 13.2 billion, while flagging that most of those orders are slated for 2027 shipment. Wolfe Research reaffirmed an Outperform rating with a prior EUR 1,400 price target in the wake of results that beat expectations, and Evercore ISI maintained an Outperform rating, pointing to the company's positive outlook.
Market context and implications
Analyst revisions and the company's reported order intake underline continued demand for lithography tools, particularly EUV systems, which are central to advanced semiconductor production. The timing of deliveries and the composition of the backlog are key drivers of near-term revenue recognition and medium-term growth assumptions. Wolfe's shift toward stronger 2027 assumptions reflects those dynamics while acknowledging reduced China revenue exposure in 2026.
Access to further analysis
Investors seeking deeper financial and quantitative analysis on ASML can consult InvestingPro's Pro Research Report, which provides expanded coverage and is available to subscribers.