Analyst Ratings January 29, 2026

William Blair Reaffirms Outperform on Royal Caribbean as Bookings and Guidance Impress

Strong advance bookings for 2026, upbeat EPS guidance and new ship demand underpin analyst confidence despite valuation questions

By Maya Rios RCL
William Blair Reaffirms Outperform on Royal Caribbean as Bookings and Guidance Impress
RCL

William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia reiterated an Outperform rating on Royal Caribbean Cruises, citing record booking momentum into 2026 and better-than-expected earnings guidance. The cruise operator reported steady fourth-quarter 2025 results, introduced loyalty program enhancements, and saw new ships and resort offerings draw strong guest interest. While near-term fundamentals look robust, some valuation metrics suggest the stock may be rich versus its Fair Value.

Key Points

  • William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating, citing record booking momentum into 2026 and yield growth across key products - sectors impacted include travel and consumer discretionary.
  • Royal Caribbean issued 2026 EPS guidance of $17.70 to $18.10, above the consensus estimate, and expects constant-currency net yields to rise 1.5% to 3.5% - this affects equity markets and investor expectations for the cruise industry.
  • New ship demand and the opening of Royal Beach Club Paradise Island, plus loyalty program enhancements, are driving guest engagement and incremental revenue potential for the hospitality and leisure sectors.

William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia has reiterated an Outperform rating on Royal Caribbean Cruises, pointing to continued strength in bookings that extend into 2026. The company’s shares are trading at $344.57 and its market capitalization sits at nearly $94 billion. Consensus among analysts remains favorable, with an average recommendation score of 1.67 (Buy).

According to William Blair, roughly two-thirds of Royal Caribbean’s 2026 sailings are already booked, and those bookings are occurring at record rates. The firm noted the cruise line recorded its highest seven booking weeks since the company released third-quarter results, evidence that demand is persisting well into the planning horizon for next year.

William Blair highlighted net yield expansion across the company’s core products. The firm specifically pointed to positive trends in Caribbean volume and pricing across all three Royal Caribbean brands, suggesting both higher volumes and stronger pricing are contributing to yield growth.

Complementing William Blair’s remarks, InvestingPro data referenced by the company shows Royal Caribbean has been profitable over the past twelve months and achieved revenue growth of 8.61% over that period.


Guidance and near-term financial outlook

Royal Caribbean issued 2026 earnings per share guidance in a range of $17.70 to $18.10. The midpoint of that guidance represents a 14% increase versus the prior year and is slightly above the consensus estimate of $17.65. The company expects constant-currency net yields to increase between 1.5% and 3.5%, and it signaled that performance is expected to be stronger in the second half of the year.

At the same time, InvestingPro’s analysis flags that the stock appears to be trading above its Fair Value, even as the shares trade at a modest forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22.57 relative to near-term earnings growth expectations.


Fleet additions, resort opening and loyalty program changes

New vessels are proving popular with customers. Legend of the Seas is slated to debut this summer, while Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel are reportedly exceeding expectations in their initial voyages. The Royal Beach Club Paradise Island, which opened in December, produced an "exceptionally positive" early guest response, according to the company’s reports.

Earlier this month Royal Caribbean expanded its loyalty offering with the launch of Points Choice, enabling members to redeem points across any of the company’s brands. Management positions the change as a means to boost engagement and generate incremental revenue, a strategy that aligns with the reported increase in loyalty guests.


Recent results and market reaction

Royal Caribbean reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that met analyst expectations, with earnings per share of $2.80 and revenue of $4.26 billion. Company management followed the announcement with positive forward guidance, reiterating that demand in the market remains strong. The quarter’s results were described as in line with projections and have been factored into analysts’ ongoing coverage.

No specific analyst upgrades or downgrades were reported in conjunction with the results, but the company’s steady performance and affirmative guidance have been a focal point for investors assessing Royal Caribbean’s positioning.


Takeaway

William Blair’s reiteration rests on what it describes as robust booking trends and improving yields, supported by profitable recent operations and revenue growth. At the same time, some measures of valuation indicate the shares may be trading above intrinsic measures of Fair Value, a contrast investors may weigh against the company’s growth and margin momentum.

Risks

  • The stock appears overvalued compared to its Fair Value according to InvestingPro analysis, posing valuation risk to equity investors in travel and consumer discretionary sectors.
  • Continued performance depends on sustained booking momentum and yield growth; a slowdown in bookings or weaker pricing trends could affect revenue and margin outlooks for the cruise and hospitality industries.

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