William Blair has reiterated a Market Perform rating on AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS), following recent meetings between the firm and AST SpaceMobile leadership. The discussions, which included Chief Strategy Officer Scott Wisniewski, focused on the company’s plans to roll out commercial direct-to-device satellite connectivity.
Management outlined a phased coverage approach tied to the number of satellites in orbit. With an initial fleet of 25 satellites, AST estimates it can deliver intermittent coverage across core markets including the U.S., Canada, select European countries, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. The company says that expanding to a larger constellation will be necessary to move from intermittent to continuous coverage in those markets.
AST and AT&T (NYSE:T) have confirmed a commercial working relationship in which AT&T intends to offer a beta satellite service in partnership with AST as early as the first half of 2026. The companies project that full service offerings from key customers could begin in late 2026. To support continuous coverage in targeted markets, AST continues to target launching between 45 and 60 satellites by the end of 2026.
On January 22, AST announced a scheduled launch date for its BlueBird 7 satellite, set for late February from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station aboard a Blue Origin New Glenn launch vehicle. That mission will carry a single BlueBird satellite. The company has noted that subsequent New Glenn vehicles could potentially accommodate up to eight BlueBird Block 2 satellites per launch, although the BlueBird 7 mission itself will include only one satellite.
BlueBird 7 represents the second satellite in AST’s next-generation campaign and is described as carrying the largest commercial communications array currently planned for low Earth orbit, spanning nearly 2,400 square feet. The company has framed this next-generation effort as a step toward scaling capacity and coverage.
On the financing side, William Blair referenced AST’s pro forma liquidity position of $3.2 billion exiting the third quarter of 2023. The firm’s analysis suggests that, on paper, this liquidity should be sufficient to finance a full 100-satellite constellation that AST views as necessary for continuous global coverage. William Blair’s review includes estimated cost assumptions the company provided: roughly $300 million in annual operating expenses, approximately $80 million per year in lease payments for Ligado spectrum, and about $22 million in capital expenditure per satellite.
Beyond commercial services, AST has secured a prime contract position on the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program, which allows the company to compete for future task orders related to missile defense systems. That work is part of AST’s broader Golden Dome strategy, intended to address a range of protection requirements.
Not all analysts share William Blair’s stance. Scotiabank downgraded AST SpaceMobile from Sector Perform to Sector Underperform. Analyst Andres Coello cited concerns around the company’s valuation and operational execution, assigning a price target of $45.60 and noting that the market capitalization of about $37 billion was at what he termed "irrational levels."
These developments underscore the dual dynamics facing AST SpaceMobile: progress on launch scheduling, partner beta plans and contract positioning, set against market skepticism about valuation and the operational demands of scaling to continuous global coverage.
Key points
- William Blair reaffirmed Market Perform on AST SpaceMobile after discussions with the company about commercial rollout and satellite milestones.
- AT&T plans a beta satellite service in partnership with AST as early as H1 2026, with key customer services expected in late 2026; AST targets 45-60 satellites by end of 2026 for continuous market coverage.
- AST reported $3.2 billion in pro forma liquidity exiting Q3 2023, which William Blair believes could fund a 100-satellite constellation given stated cost assumptions.
Risks and uncertainties
- Valuation concerns - Scotiabank downgraded the stock, highlighting worries about AST’s market capitalization in relation to its operational outlook; this impacts equity investors and the broader telecom-equipment sector.
- Operational scale-up - Meeting targets for launches and achieving continuous coverage depends on executing a multi-satellite deployment plan, which affects launch services, supply-chain partners and launch schedule risk.
- Financial assumptions - The sufficiency of pro forma liquidity is based on cost estimates for operating expenses, spectrum lease payments and per-satellite capital expenditure; deviations could affect funding needs and investor confidence.