UBS has reiterated a Buy recommendation on McDonald’s with an unchanged $350.00 price target as the fast-food operator approaches its fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for February 11. The UBS stance sits below the Street’s loftiest price-target estimate of $372, even as InvestingPro-related data indicates 13 analysts have recently revised their earnings projections upward for the upcoming period. The stock is trading close to its 52-week high of $326.32.
UBS analyst Dennis Geiger outlined expectations that McDonald’s will report robust same-store sales in the U.S., alongside sustained momentum across international markets. Those factors form the basis of UBS’s constructive view on the company’s position heading into 2026. Investor expectations for U.S. same-store sales growth hover around 6-7%, versus the consensus estimate of 4.8%.
Over the trailing twelve months McDonald’s reported total revenue of $26.26 billion, representing a modest increase of 1.25%. For its International Operated Markets segment, investors anticipate a small upside relative to the consensus view of 3.2% same-store sales growth.
Looking at margins, UBS expects McDonald’s initial guidance for 2026 to indicate operating margins in the mid to high 40% range. This would build on the company’s recently reported gross profit margin of 57.42% from recent quarters.
UBS also projects that U.S. sales momentum will carry into the first quarter of 2026. The firm cites a combination of factors underpinning that view: perceived improvements in value following the Extra Value Meal relaunch, ongoing menu innovation, marketing initiatives, and relatively easy year-over-year comparisons.
Despite UBS’s positive posture on McDonald’s prospects for 2026 - including catalysts for market share gains and an expectation of stronger U.S. sales growth - the brokerage notes that the company offers defensive traits that can help stabilize earnings amid what it describes as a still volatile environment.
Other analyst firms have published a range of viewpoints ahead of the same earnings release. Jefferies projects fourth-quarter earnings per share of $3.00, slightly below the consensus estimate of $3.05, and anticipates U.S. same-store sales to rise 4.5%, close to the consensus forecast of 4.7%.
KeyBanc recently raised its price target on McDonald’s from $335 to $340 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing what it sees as effective execution of the company’s value strategy through the fourth quarter of 2025. TD Cowen holds a Hold rating with a $320 price target and expects 7% growth in U.S. comparable sales for the period. Bernstein has reiterated a Market Perform rating with a $320 price target, pointing to a la carte pricing as a potential area of growth. BMO Capital named McDonald’s, alongside Starbucks, as a top pick in the restaurant sector for 2026 despite anticipated headwinds for the industry.
Taken together, these broker notes reflect a mix of confidence and caution among analysts regarding McDonald’s near-term results and strategic path. Investors will be watching the company’s upcoming earnings release for confirmation of sales trends, margin guidance, and management commentary on 2026 priorities.
Key points
- UBS reiterates Buy on McDonald’s with a $350.00 price target ahead of Q4 earnings on February 11; stock trades near its 52-week high of $326.32.
- Investor expectations for U.S. same-store sales are roughly 6-7%, versus a consensus estimate of 4.8%; International Operated Markets are expected to modestly beat a 3.2% consensus.
- Analyst views vary across the broker community - Jefferies, KeyBanc, TD Cowen, Bernstein, and BMO Capital present a range of earnings forecasts, ratings, and price targets.
Risks and uncertainties
- Reported same-store sales could fall short of investor expectations in the U.S., affecting revenue and sentiment - relevant to the restaurant and consumer discretionary sectors.
- Margin guidance for 2026 may not reach the mid to high 40% operating margin range anticipated by UBS, posing a risk to earnings stability - relevant to corporate profitability and investor returns.
- Diverging analyst forecasts and price targets create uncertainty around consensus views and market reactions to the upcoming report - relevant to equity markets and sector analysts.