UBS raised its price target on ExxonMobil - moving the objective to $171.00 from $145.00 - while retaining a Buy rating, according to analyst notes released on Tuesday. The upgrade followed ExxonMobil's fourth-quarter 2025 results, which UBS said beat Street estimates by 1.18%.
Even with the outperformance on headline results, UBS pointed out that ExxonMobil lagged its close peer Chevron by 271 basis points. UBS attributed part of that gap to Chevron delivering a notably larger earnings surprise, beating estimates by 10.07%.
On the operational side, UBS highlighted several specific problem areas inside ExxonMobil's business. Five of eight underlying reporting segments missed expectations in the quarter. International chemicals recorded negative earnings, and U.S. chemicals earnings declined 56% quarter-over-quarter, the firm noted.
Guidance issued by ExxonMobil for the first quarter of 2026 also drew scrutiny from UBS. The company’s guidance implies an approximate reduction of 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in volumes. In addition, scheduled maintenance at the Product Solutions business is expected to introduce roughly a $265 million quarter-over-quarter earnings headwind, according to UBS’s summary of the company’s outlook.
ExxonMobil reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.71, topping the consensus forecast of $1.68. Revenue for the quarter came in at $82.31 billion, exceeding the projected $81.04 billion. Those results prompted a range of responses from other brokers.
JPMorgan upgraded its base case on the company by raising its price target to $140 from $133 and maintained an Overweight rating after the quarterly results. By contrast, BNP Paribas Exane moved in the opposite direction, downgrading ExxonMobil from Neutral to Underperform and setting a $125 price target, citing concerns over valuation after a year of strong share performance.
Together, the broker reactions illustrate mixed analyst sentiment toward ExxonMobil. While headline earnings and revenue beat expectations, UBS emphasized that beneath the aggregate figures there were multiple segment-level disappointments, guidance that points to lower early-2026 volumes, and a near-term maintenance-related earnings drag in Product Solutions.
Key takeaways:
- UBS raised its ExxonMobil price target to $171 from $145 and kept a Buy rating following a modest beat versus Street estimates.
- Operational weaknesses were flagged: five of eight segments missed expectations, International chemicals posted negative earnings, and U.S. chemicals profit fell 56% quarter-over-quarter.
- Company guidance implies roughly 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day lower volumes in Q1 2026, and Product Solutions maintenance creates a $265 million quarter-over-quarter earnings headwind.
Analyst responses:
- JPMorgan lifted its price target to $140 from $133 and kept an Overweight rating after the results.
- BNP Paribas Exane downgraded ExxonMobil from Neutral to Underperform and set a $125 target, pointing to valuation concerns following a strong run in the stock.