UBS updated its valuation outlook for Boeing, raising the firm's price target to $285.00 from $275.00 and keeping a Buy rating on the aerospace company. The stock is trading at $244.56, with analyst targets reported to span a range from $155 to $300.
In its note, UBS highlighted improving free cash flow as a core reason for the higher target. The bank emphasized Boeing's continued focus on quality and operational stability while it scales commercial aircraft production to respond to strong demand. UBS framed these priorities as central to restoring investor confidence as the company grows output.
UBS also called attention to Boeing's gross profit margins, which are currently weak at 4.79%. The bank suggested that the company's quality-first approach is particularly important given the margin backdrop, and that progress on these fronts should support a reorientation of investor valuation toward normalized free cash flow metrics.
Management transparency was singled out by UBS as another constructive development. The bank said greater disclosure should help shift market attention toward valuing Boeing on normalized free cash flow, conditional on the company continuing to make steady progress on execution.
On forward guidance, Boeing has outlined a path to positive free cash flow in 2026 and a bridge to high single-digit billions in positive free cash flow this year. UBS noted that these company projections incorporate build rates and unit cash margins that the bank described as "far below" what it thinks is feasible, implying UBS expects stronger operational performance could lift cash generation beyond current guidance.
Looking further ahead, UBS provided a 2030 free cash flow estimate for Boeing of $20 billion, which the bank equated to roughly $25 per share. UBS said the stock has already undergone a re-rating but that there remains "material upside" to consensus free cash flow expectations if Boeing continues to execute well.
Boeing's recent operating results provided empirical support for the more optimistic tone. For the fourth quarter of 2025 the company reported earnings per share of $9.92, materially above the expected loss of $0.45. Revenue for the quarter was $23.9 billion, topping the expected $22.4 billion. Total sales were reported at $24 billion, a 57% increase compared with the strike-affected fourth quarter of 2024. Free cash flow for the quarter was also better than anticipated, at approximately $400 million.
Analysts responded to the results and operational progress with price target increases. RBC Capital raised its target to $275 while maintaining an Outperform rating. TD Cowen raised its target to $270 and kept a Buy rating, while noting a $565 million charge related to the KC-46 program. Vertical Research Partners set a new target of $281, citing operational stabilization and resolution of key portfolio issues as signs of recovery. Collectively, these updates reflect rising analyst confidence in Boeing's financial and operational trajectory.
These developments come as Boeing balances production increases with a push for higher quality and stronger cash generation. The market reaction and analyst adjustments indicate a reassessment of the company's path back to normalized, multi-year free cash flow generation.