UBS on Tuesday nudged up its price target for Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) to $311.00 from $310.00 while maintaining a Buy rating ahead of the e-commerce giant's fourth-quarter results. The marginal increase in the target accompanies a forward roll of UBS's valuation framework by one quarter and a reassessment that raises the firm's revenue and spending assumptions for Amazon Web Services (AWS).
In a material shift to its capital spending outlook, UBS increased its aggregated capex projections for the span between fourth quarter 2025 and fourth quarter 2027 from $300 billion to $344 billion. Within that broader total, UBS now attributes $260 billion to AWS, up from its prior estimate of $225 billion.
UBS framed Amazon shares as a "coiled spring," arguing that neither its own models nor broader Wall Street consensus appear to fully incorporate the potential for AWS revenue to double by 2028 under the bank's higher capital-intensity view. UBS suggests that the elevated investment posture for AWS could translate into roughly $20 billion of additional free cash flow in 2028.
The investment bank also flagged the company’s upcoming earnings release: Amazon is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5. UBS noted that the quarter would represent a second consecutive quarter of acceleration at AWS according to its analysis.
Other sell-side analysts have remained constructive heading into Amazon's Q4 report. Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and projects Q4 revenue near $211 billion, which it sees as roughly a 12% year-over-year gain, along with an operating income estimate of $24.6 billion. Monness, Crespi, Hardt also held firm with a Buy rating, penciling in revenue of about $211.30 billion, or roughly 13% growth, and forecasting earnings per share of $1.98. BMO Capital has likewise maintained an Outperform rating and cited AWS growth as a principal driver.
The company disclosed operational scale metrics for 2025 that underline the logistical footprint tied to its retail and delivery network: over 13 billion items were delivered to Prime members worldwide during the year, with U.S. members receiving more than 8 billion of those items on the same or next day. According to the data provided, U.S. Prime members saved an average of $550 on delivery costs—almost four times the cost of an annual membership—while Amazon expanded its Same-Day Delivery service into more than 4,000 smaller cities and towns across 44 states.
Separately noted in the market update, Marvell has completed its acquisition of Celestial AI, and RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform rating while expressing a favorable view of that deal.
The UBS move — a small target increase but a large revision to capex and AWS assumptions — highlights the bank’s view that higher near-term investment could pave the way for outsized cloud revenue and cash flow further out. Market participants will be watching the February 5 results for confirmation of AWS momentum and to see how the company's spending plans map to future free cash flow outcomes.