UBS has raised its near-term gold price target to $6,200 per ounce for March, June and September 2026, an upgrade from the bank's earlier forecast of $5,000 per ounce. The adjustment reflects the bank's assessment of sustained and broad-based demand for the metal.
UBS points to several demand-side drivers behind the stronger outlook. The bank expects continued heavy central bank buying, growing inflows into exchange-traded funds and an uptick in retail purchases of bars and coins to underpin higher prices in the coming years.
The current market performance for gold ETFs offers context for UBS's view. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has delivered a very strong return over the last year, with a 94.56% gain, and at the time of reporting it was trading at $492.08 - roughly 0.99% below its 52-week high. Data cited alongside UBS's note show GLD up 61.49% over the past six months and 24.79% year-to-date, signaling elevated investor engagement with physically-backed gold exposure.
In its analysis, UBS attributes the bullish case to macro and policy dynamics as well. The bank highlights lower U.S. real interest rates, persistent global economic concerns and uncertainty in U.S. domestic policy - specifically the period around the midterm elections and heightened fiscal stress - as factors that increase gold's appeal as a store of value and hedge.
UBS reiterated that it remains long gold, framing the metal as an attractive asset in the current environment. Nonetheless, the bank also models a modest scenario change following the U.S. midterm elections, projecting a slight decline to $5,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.
Recent price moves in precious metals have been pronounced. Gold has climbed past $5,100 per ounce amid escalating geopolitical tensions, an advance that the article notes amounts to an 18% rise since the start of 2026. Prior intramonth milestones included gold crossing $4,900 per ounce and earlier reaching an all-time high of $4,887.82 per ounce, with market commentary linking these jumps to geopolitical uncertainty.
Silver has mirrored the strength in the complex, with prices reportedly reaching a fresh record of $95.91 per ounce. These developments underscore the degree to which global tensions and inflation concerns have elevated demand for precious metals among investors seeking safety and portfolio diversification.
Taken together, UBS's revised target, strong ETF performance and recent price records for gold and silver illustrate the current momentum in the precious-metals market while also leaving room for a measured pullback in the medium term, according to the bank's scenario analysis.