Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

Truist Lifts Tronox Price Target to $8 After Volume Strength; Cost Headwinds Seen Into Q1 2026

Analyst maintains Buy as mix and cost pressures prompt near-term estimate adjustments amid plant closure and rare-earth financing developments

By Ajmal Hussain TROX
Truist Lifts Tronox Price Target to $8 After Volume Strength; Cost Headwinds Seen Into Q1 2026
TROX

Truist Securities raised its price target for Tronox (NYSE:TROX) to $8.00 from $7.00 and kept a Buy rating after the company's January 26 pre-announcement showed stronger-than-expected volumes tied to market share gains. The firm warned that cost and product-mix weakness flagged in preliminary fourth-quarter results will likely affect the first quarter of 2026 and adjusted its estimates. Separately, Tronox announced the permanent closure of its Fuzhou titanium dioxide plant, outlined restructuring charges, and secured conditional financing support tied to its rare earth elements supply chain projects.

Key Points

  • Truist raised its price target for Tronox to $8.00 from $7.00 and kept a Buy rating after a January 26 pre-announcement showed stronger-than-expected volumes driven by market share gains.
  • Truist warned cost and mix-related weakness from preliminary fourth-quarter results will likely affect Q1 2026, prompting adjustments to near-term estimates.
  • Tronox closed its Fuzhou titanium dioxide plant permanently, expects $60-80 million in restructuring charges, and projects annual cost savings of over $15 million; the company also has conditional financing support of up to $600 million for rare earth supply chain projects.

Truist Securities has raised its price target on Tronox (NYSE:TROX) to $8.00 from $7.00 and retained a Buy rating on the titanium dioxide producer. The updated target sits close to InvestingPro's Fair Value assessment noted for the company, indicating the stock may still be modestly undervalued despite a year-to-date gain in excess of 55%.

The broker's revision follows a January 26 earnings pre-announcement from Tronox that highlighted stronger-than-expected shipment volumes. Truist attributed the volume strength to market share gains across key geographies, a dynamic the firm views as supportive for near-term revenue trends.

At the same time, Truist cautioned that weakness driven by costs and an unfavorable product mix, which emerged in preliminary fourth-quarter results, is expected to pressure results into the first quarter of 2026. As a result, Truist adjusted its near-term estimates to account for those headwinds while continuing to point to management actions aimed at addressing high-cost capacity.

The research note emphasized Tronox's ongoing efforts to rationalize higher-cost production and improve its cost structure as constructive steps. Truist also flagged potential near-term catalysts for the company, including an improvement in titanium dioxide pricing dynamics and continued market share benefits tied to anti-dumping duties. A final decision from India on related trade measures remains a material item for investors to monitor.

Investors might also weigh Tronox's 3.08% dividend yield, a payout the company has sustained for 14 consecutive years despite recent profitability challenges. Tronox is scheduled to report earnings on February 18, and further details are available through InvestingPro's Research Report and accompanying ProTips, which the research product positions as additional analysis to help parse the company's financial picture.

In separate corporate developments, Tronox announced the permanent closure of its titanium dioxide plant in Fuzhou, China, citing weak domestic demand and rising costs as the reasons for the shutdown. The company expects restructuring charges in the range of $60-80 million tied to the closure, alongside projected annual cost savings in excess of $15 million.

Tronox has also secured conditional support for up to $600 million in financing from Export Finance Australia and the Export-Import Bank of the United States to advance its rare earth elements supply chain. The financing is intended to back mine extensions and necessary infrastructure development related to those projects.

Market watchers have noted shifting analyst views alongside these developments. BMO Capital upgraded Tronox from Underperform to Market Perform, citing a more favorable risk/reward profile. Mizuho increased its price target for Tronox from $3.00 to $3.50 but maintained an Underperform rating. Analysts referencing Tronox's rare earth minerals initiatives point to potential value stemming from investments such as the company's stake in Lion Rock Minerals.


Summary of what to watch:

  • Execution on cost rationalization and the integration of lower-cost production as management actions to counter mix and cost pressures.
  • Titanium dioxide pricing trends and any final trade rulings - particularly the pending decision from India - that could sustain market share gains.
  • Progress on rare earth elements financing and project execution, including the conditional support of up to $600 million for mine and infrastructure work.

Risks

  • Cost and product-mix pressures identified in preliminary fourth-quarter results could continue to weigh on near-term profitability - impacting industrials and basic materials sectors.
  • Regulatory or trade decisions, including the pending final decision from India on anti-dumping duties, could materially affect titanium dioxide market dynamics and Tronox's market-share benefits - a risk for commodity producers and chemical manufacturers.
  • Execution risk on rare earth projects and conditional financing support could slow project timelines or increase capital strain if terms or conditions change - a concern for mining and materials supply-chain sectors.

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