Analyst Ratings February 4, 2026

Truist Lifts Mercury Systems Price Target to $109 After Strong Q2 Results

Analyst keeps Buy rating as Mercury posts better-than-expected revenue, cash flow and margins while flagging near-term revenue softness

By Marcus Reed MRCY
Truist Lifts Mercury Systems Price Target to $109 After Strong Q2 Results
MRCY

Truist Securities increased its 12-month price target for Mercury Systems (MRCY) to $109 from $102 and retained a Buy rating following fiscal second-quarter 2026 results that outperformed consensus across the board. The company reported robust free cash flow over the last twelve months and solid year-over-year growth in domestic demand, even as management signaled a likely revenue decline and free cash flow burn in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.

Key Points

  • Truist Securities raised Mercury Systems' price target to $109 from $102 and maintained a Buy rating.
  • Mercury posted fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $233 million, up 4.4% year-over-year and about 10.6% above consensus; adjusted EPS was $0.16 and adjusted EBITDA was $30 million.
  • Management signaled expected year-over-year revenue decline and free cash flow burn in Q3 fiscal 2026 while pursuing working capital improvements through supply chain actions and demand planning.

Truist Securities raised its price objective for Mercury Systems (NASDAQ:MRCY) to $109.00 from $102.00 on Wednesday and kept a Buy rating on the defense technology company. The stock is trading at $80.35 and has returned 135.88% over the past year, according to InvestingPro data.

The analyst move follows Mercury’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 earnings, which beat consensus estimates on all major metrics. Notably, the company generated $99.38 million in levered free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, a performance Truist described as stronger than market expectations.

Mercury reported that domestic demand - which represents 84% of the firm’s revenue - rose 9% year-over-year. For the last twelve months the company posted total revenue of $942.54 million, representing 6.58% growth. Management provided directional guidance for the back half of fiscal 2026 that includes an anticipated year-over-year revenue decline in the third quarter and an expected free cash flow burn.

Management cited efforts to tighten working capital as a current priority, with specific focus on supply chain management, accelerating customer deliveries and implementing demand planning initiatives. Truist said it views management’s outlook as conservative and expects some revenue pull-forward to occur in the third quarter of fiscal 2026.

Mercury’s fiscal second-quarter results highlighted sequential and year-over-year improvements. The company reported quarterly revenues of $233 million, up 4.4% from the prior year and roughly 10.6% ahead of consensus expectations. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.16 - a 136% increase year-over-year and double the forecasted $0.08. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $30 million, a 36.3% increase from the year-ago quarter.

Following the strong quarter, Canaccord Genuity also raised its price target on Mercury to $102 from $88 while maintaining a Buy rating. The consecutive price target increases and the beat on both top- and bottom-line metrics reflect analysts’ responses to the company’s recent performance and cash generation.


While results were favorable, management’s guidance for the third quarter signals some near-term softness in revenue and free cash flow. The company intends to address working capital through supply chain and demand-planning initiatives aimed at accelerating deliveries and aligning inventories with customer demand.

Investors and sector observers will watch third-quarter execution closely to see whether the pull-forward of revenue that Truist expects materializes and how quickly working capital improvements translate into sustained cash flow generation.

Risks

  • Management expects a year-over-year revenue decline in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 - this near-term weakness could affect revenue-sensitive sectors, including defense contractors and suppliers.
  • The company anticipates free cash flow burn in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, which introduces cash-flow volatility risk for investors and creditors.
  • Concentration of revenue in domestic demand - 84% of revenue - could increase exposure to shifts in U.S. defense spending and policy, affecting the aerospace and defense sector.

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