Texas Capital Securities on Thursday initiated coverage of Figure Technology (NASDAQ: FIGR) with a Buy rating and a price objective of $82.00. The research note frames Figure as a market leader in converting real-world assets to on-chain instruments and positions its on-chain credit platforms as the core of the firm's value proposition.
Figure currently carries a market capitalization of $14.53 billion and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 134.77. Over the last twelve months the company reported revenue of $382.6 million alongside EBITDA of $86.39 million, figures Texas Capital used as context for its forward-looking valuation.
In its analysis, Texas Capital singled out Figure as the largest platform serving the tokenization of real-world assets, noting that home equity line of credit (HELOC) origination and subsequent securitization are the primary revenue drivers today. The firm anticipates the company will broaden its asset mix to include nonqualified residential mortgages and other asset classes, which underpins its growth and margin forecasts.
Specifically, Texas Capital projects revenue growth in excess of 20% annually and expects Figure to reach roughly a 60% EBITDA margin by 2028. Based on those projections, the firm believes Figure's shares could reasonably trade at 29 times its estimated 2028 EBITDA. The report argues that pairing on-chain processing efficiencies with traditionally underwritten assets offers institutional investors a superior risk-adjusted avenue to gain exposure to blockchain technology.
Figure has also been active on product innovation. The company introduced its On-Chain Public Equity Network (OPEN), a mechanism intended to enable the listing of equity directly on a public blockchain and to bypass traditional securities depositories. Texas Capital's initiation comes amid several recent analyst reactions to the company’s reported volumes.
Figure disclosed preliminary consumer loan marketplace volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025 of $2,705 million, a result that exceeded consensus expectations by 16%. That metric prompted several broker-dealers to revisit their outlooks: Piper Sandler raised its price target to $75 and kept an Overweight rating, Jefferies lifted its target to $55 citing the same quarterly volumes, and Mizuho increased its price target to $64 while pointing to catalysts for the fintech sector heading into 2026. Separately, Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating and identified Figure as its top pick for 2026.
These combined analyst moves and Texas Capital's initiation underscore how the company’s mix of asset tokenization, on-chain trading infrastructure and expanding credit origination has captured the attention of institutional research teams and market analysts.
Key points
- Texas Capital initiated coverage of Figure Technology with a Buy rating and $82.00 price target, implying about 21% upside.
- Figure reported $382.6 million in trailing twelve-month revenue and $86.39 million in EBITDA; HELOC origination and securitization drive most revenue.
- Several other firms adjusted targets after Figure reported preliminary Q4 2025 consumer loan marketplace volumes of $2,705 million, which beat consensus by 16%.
Risks and uncertainties
- Future performance is contingent on Figure’s ability to expand into nonqualified residential mortgages and other assets as projected - execution risk affects fintech and mortgage markets.
- Realization of the projected 60% EBITDA margin by 2028 depends on sustained revenue growth and margin expansion; profitability assumptions may not materialize and could impact investor returns.
- Valuation assumptions such as the 29x 2028 estimated EBITDA multiple rely on market acceptance of on-chain efficiency claims and institutional adoption of tokenized assets.