TD Cowen has trimmed its price target for SkyWest Inc. to $122.00 from $132.00 while continuing to carry a Buy rating on the regional carrier's shares. At the prevailing market price of $101.66, the broker's new target implies nearly 20% potential upside.
The change arrives in advance of SkyWest's quarter-end report for Q4 2025, which is due after markets close on January 29. Management will host a conference call at 4:30 PM ET following the release.
In research notes, TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald attributed the lower price target primarily to "compression in multiple as growth normalizes." Despite that valuation shift, Fitzgerald left the recommendation unchanged, signaling continued confidence in SkyWest's longer-term prospects even as rapid growth moderates.
The firm said it had adjusted its Q4 2025 estimates in December and subsequently refined projections for calendar-year 2026 as part of this latest review. Those modeling changes accompanied the reduction in the target price.
Investors and analysts are expected to focus on several operational and capacity-related items during the upcoming earnings discussion. Key topics likely to get attention include the impact of any shutdowns, block hour growth expectations for Q1 and for full-year 2026, fleet plans with particular emphasis on E175 deliveries and aircraft utilization, and the company's timeline and progress toward restoring service to smaller markets.
SkyWest's recent operating performance provides context for the revisions. The company reported a strong third quarter for 2025 with adjusted earnings per share of $2.81, ahead of analyst projections of $2.50. Revenue rose about 15% year-over-year to $1.1 billion. Those results prompted TD Cowen at the time to raise its price target from $124 to $132 while maintaining a Buy recommendation.
Operational headwinds continue to present challenges across the industry. Major storms in the United States have led to widespread disruption, with more than 1,300 flight cancellations reported. SkyWest, like other carriers, is managing through those near-term disruptions while pursuing capacity and fleet plans.
With the company approaching its Q4 2025 disclosure, the market will be watching how the updated guidance and commentary on fleet and small-market service track against TD Cowen's revised estimates and valuation approach.
What to watch
- Q4 2025 results and management commentary on 2026 outlook.
- Block hour trajectory for Q1 and full-year 2026, and E175 delivery and utilization updates.
- Progress on restoring service to smaller markets amid recent storm-related disruptions.