Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

TD Cowen Lowers SkyWater Rating to Hold After IonQ Acquisition Announcement

Analyst trims stance even as price target rises to reflect $35-per-share offer from IonQ in a $1.8 billion deal

By Hana Yamamoto SKYT
TD Cowen Lowers SkyWater Rating to Hold After IonQ Acquisition Announcement
SKYT

TD Cowen cut its recommendation on SkyWater Technology (SKYT) from Buy to Hold while lifting its price target to $35.00 following IonQ’s proposed $1.8 billion purchase of the specialty foundry. The transaction, structured as $15.00 in cash plus $20.00 in IonQ common stock per SkyWater share, positions SkyWater as a separate IonQ subsidiary and implies the company is trading above InvestingPro’s calculated Fair Value.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen downgraded SkyWater from Buy to Hold while increasing its price target to $35.00 following IonQ’s acquisition announcement.
  • IonQ’s proposed purchase values SkyWater at about $1.8 billion, offering $15.00 in cash plus $20.00 in IonQ stock per share, a 38% premium to the 30-day VWAP as of January 23.
  • The deal aims to combine IonQ’s quantum processing and services with SkyWater’s specialty semiconductor and quantum manufacturing, creating a vertically integrated quantum technology company; sectors impacted include semiconductors, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing.

Deal terms and market reaction

TD Cowen adjusted its rating on SkyWater Technology (NASDAQ:SKYT) from Buy to Hold after IonQ announced plans to acquire the company in a transaction valued at about $1.8 billion. The offer equates to $35.00 per share. Following the announcement, SkyWater shares were trading at $32.35, having gained 219.9% over the prior 12 months.

Under the proposed agreement, SkyWater shareholders would receive $15.00 in cash and $20.00 in IonQ common stock for each SkyWater share. The deal price represents a premium relative to SkyWater’s market capitalization of $1.57 billion and a 38% premium to SkyWater’s 30-day volume-weighted average price as of January 23.


Analyst rationale from TD Cowen

TD Cowen raised its SkyWater price target to $35.00 from $24.00 even as it moved the recommendation to Hold. The firm characterizes the acquisition largely as a strategic move by IonQ to bolster its capabilities rather than a purely financial transaction. According to TD Cowen, the acquisition supplies IonQ with additional prototyping, development, and manufacturing resources that should shorten chip cycle times and help accelerate product pathways.


Strategic positioning and operations

The announced combination is designed to form a vertically integrated quantum computing enterprise by pairing IonQ’s strengths in quantum processing, networking, sensing, and cloud services with SkyWater’s specialty semiconductor and quantum-focused manufacturing capacity. SkyWater is slated to remain a distinct subsidiary within IonQ’s corporate organization.


Financials and recent company developments

TD Cowen noted that SkyWater’s underlying fundamentals had been on an improving trajectory before the acquisition news, citing the impact of the company’s recent Fab 25 acquisition on its profit and loss statement. SkyWater’s client roster includes, among others, Infineon, the U.S. government, and D-Wave.

On reported results, SkyWater disclosed Q3 2025 revenue of $150.7 million, which the company said exceeded its own guidance but was described in the available reporting as falling short of analyst expectations of $81.98 million. The company posted earnings per share of $0.24, which missed a forecast of $-0.17 as stated in the same reporting.


Partnerships and technology collaborations

SkyWater and QuamCore announced a multimillion-dollar collaboration aimed at developing superconducting fabrication processes for quantum computing control electronics. The partnership is intended to address technical bottlenecks related to wiring density and system complexity in quantum computing systems.


Valuation signals

InvestingPro data cited alongside reporting indicate that the $35.00-per-share acquisition price implies SkyWater is trading above its calculated Fair Value prior to closing. That valuation signal factored into TD Cowen’s reappraisal of the stock and its recommendation change.


What this means for markets and stakeholders

  • For investors in SkyWater, the deal sets a clear per-share exit price of $35.00 tied to cash and IonQ stock consideration.
  • For IonQ, the transaction is intended to secure manufacturing and prototyping assets that the firm expects will support its product roadmap and time-to-market objectives.
  • Industry implications focus on the intersection of semiconductor manufacturing and quantum computing development, with potential effects for suppliers and customers tied to those sectors.

As presented in the available reporting, these items summarize the current state of the transaction, analyst reaction, recent financials, and a related technology partnership involving SkyWater.

Risks

  • InvestingPro data indicate the acquisition price puts SkyWater above its calculated Fair Value, suggesting valuation risk for buyers and sellers.
  • SkyWater reported Q3 2025 EPS of $0.24, which missed a stated forecast of $-0.17, indicating potential volatility in near-term earnings performance.
  • The transaction is described by TD Cowen as primarily strategic; the strategic nature can create uncertainty around the immediate financial benefits and integration outcomes for stakeholders in semiconductors and quantum services.

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