Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

TD Cowen Lowers First Citizens BancShares Price Target to $2,500, Affirms Buy Rating

Earnings topped expectations but cautious 2026 guidance and mixed income metrics prompt analyst pullback; SVB segment cited as a growth bright spot

By Marcus Reed FCNCA
TD Cowen Lowers First Citizens BancShares Price Target to $2,500, Affirms Buy Rating
FCNCA

TD Cowen trimmed its 12-month price target on First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) to $2,500 from $2,600 while keeping a Buy rating, after the bank reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that beat on core EPS but showed softer pre-tax pre-provision income and cautious guidance for 2026. Market reaction included a notable share decline and analyst revisions; Raymond James also lowered its target while maintaining a Strong Buy.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen lowered its price target on First Citizens BancShares to $2,500 from $2,600 but kept a Buy rating; the stock traded at $2,003.46 and is down 7.04% over the past week - impacts banking and financial equities.
  • Fourth-quarter 2025 core EPS of $51.27 beat expectations due to lower provisions, though pre-tax pre-provision income fell below forecasts - impacts bank profitability analysis and credit/loan portfolios.
  • Raymond James also cut its target to $2,350 from $2,440 while maintaining a Strong Buy, citing concerns about net interest margin and operating expense guidance for 2026 - impacts investor expectations for bank margins and expense management.

TD Cowen has reduced its price objective for First Citizens BancShares (NASDAQ:FCNCA) to $2,500.00 from $2,600.00, while keeping a Buy rating, the firm said on Monday. At the time of the note the stock was trading at $2,003.46 and has fallen 7.04% over the last week.

The analyst action follows First Citizens’ fourth-quarter 2025 report, in which the bank posted core earnings per share of $51.27. That figure exceeded consensus expectations, a result TD Cowen attributed largely to lower provisions. The bank’s pre-tax pre-provision income, however, came in below what analysts had forecast, a contrast that tempered the upbeat headline.

On a trailing-twelve-month basis, First Citizens reported diluted EPS of $165.24. Analysts covering the name expect diluted EPS of $177.01 for fiscal year 2026, a projection noted in the firm’s post-earnings analysis.

TD Cowen highlighted that shares weakened materially after the earnings release, linking the drop primarily to softer-than-expected guidance for 2026 that weighed on investor sentiment. Complementary InvestingPro data cited in the note show two analysts have cut their earnings estimates for the coming period and that revenue is modeled to decline slightly in 2026.

Despite those near-term headwinds, the research house pointed to encouraging trends in the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) segment, describing its improving performance as an important driver for long-term growth prospects. TD Cowen also emphasized the bank’s "attractive discount valuation" as a central reason for retaining the Buy rating even after lowering the target.

In other recent analyst activity, First Citizens disclosed fourth-quarter adjusted earnings that significantly exceeded expectations, a result the company attributed to robust loan growth and steady credit quality. Following the quarter, Raymond James trimmed its price target for the stock from $2,440.00 to $2,350.00 but left its Strong Buy rating intact. Raymond James said its adjustment reflected concerns about the bank’s 2026 outlook, specifically calling out net interest margin and operating expense guidance as factors in its decision.

Taken together, the reactions from TD Cowen and Raymond James illustrate a mixed reception to First Citizens’ quarterly results: strong reported earnings and credit stability on one hand, and cautious near-term profit and revenue commentary on the other. InvestingPro’s fair value assessment was cited as suggesting the shares remain undervalued based on its evaluation.


What this means

  • Analyst price adjustments reflect a balance between an earnings beat and cautious forward guidance.
  • Market response was immediate, with the stock price falling and some analysts trimming forward estimates.
  • Performance in the SVB segment is singled out as a potential upside contributor for long-term growth.

Risks

  • Softer-than-expected 2026 guidance has already pressured the stock, indicating execution risk in the near term - affects investor confidence in the financial sector.
  • Two analysts have reduced earnings estimates and revenue is expected to decline slightly in 2026 per InvestingPro data, reflecting forecast uncertainty - impacts revenue-driven valuations across banking stocks.
  • Uncertainty around net interest margin and operating expense guidance could constrain profitability in 2026, a focal point for analyst outlooks - affects banks' margin-sensitive business models.

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