TD Cowen raised its price objective on Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) to $198.00 from $183.00 on Wednesday and left its rating on the shares at Buy. The new target implies upside from the stock's most recently quoted price of $187.58, with the shares up 15.34% year-to-date and trading close to a 52-week high of $202.29.
The firm attributed its target lift to Marathon's recent earnings outperformance, saying the company's refining gross margin was consistent with historical capture rates. TD Cowen pointed to the earnings-per-share beat as evidence of solid operational and financial execution.
Data from InvestingPro cited by the analyst firm underline Marathon's recent financial strength and note management's aggressive share-repurchase activity as a significant contributor to EPS growth.
TD Cowen warned that first-quarter 2026 results will feel the effects of scheduled turnarounds. The firm expects throughput and operating expenses to be negatively affected in that period, but it anticipates operations to improve after that quarter as turnaround-related spending is guided lower year-over-year and is expected to fall further in subsequent reporting periods.
The analyst also highlighted seasonal drivers for margins and noted that capital expenditures came in higher than analysts had expected. TD Cowen said capex should decline in future years, which factors into its outlook for the company.
Maintaining the Buy rating, TD Cowen emphasized the favorable operational and financial trajectory it sees for Marathon, citing the combination of margin dynamics, buybacks, and a declining capex profile over time.
Recent company results
Marathon Petroleum reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, outperforming consensus estimates. The company posted earnings per share of $4.07 versus a projected $3.01, a beat of 35.22%. Reported revenue was $33.42 billion compared with the anticipated $32.86 billion, a 1.7% positive surprise.
Those fourth-quarter results were described as a material highlight for the company. Following the release, the article notes that analyst shops have not issued recent upgrades or downgrades tied to those results.
Context and market position
Investors will be watching the company's handling of planned turnarounds and the timing of when throughput and operating cost trends normalize. The interaction of seasonally stronger margins, share-repurchase activity, and a trajectory toward lower capital spending underpin the more constructive view expressed by TD Cowen.
Market performance to date - a 15.34% year-to-date gain and trading near the 52-week peak - reflects the market's current reception of these operational and financial results.