Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

TD Cowen Lifts Cullen/Frost Price Target to $160, Citing Strong Q4 Results and Balance Sheet Momentum

Analyst holds rating while pointing to improved spreads, fee income and a steady multi-year expansion trajectory

By Priya Menon CFR
TD Cowen Lifts Cullen/Frost Price Target to $160, Citing Strong Q4 Results and Balance Sheet Momentum
CFR

TD Cowen raised its price target on Cullen/Frost Bankers to $160 from $154 while keeping its existing rating, noting the bank's stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter performance, ongoing balance sheet momentum and multi-year expansion strategy. Recent results and analyst revisions have supported a constructive outlook, even as the stock trades slightly above its Fair Value and the firm’s financial health is assessed as "FAIR."

Key Points

  • TD Cowen raised its Cullen/Frost price target to $160 from $154 while maintaining its rating; the new target is about 15% above the recent trading price of $139.11.
  • The upgrade follows Cullen/Frost’s fourth-quarter 2025 core EPS of $2.67 and a quarter that benefited from stronger-than-expected spread and fee income alongside lower expenses, contributing to a 16% return on common equity over the last twelve months.
  • Cullen/Frost reported GAAP fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of $2.56 versus a $2.45 forecast and revenue of $603.38 million versus an expected $578.07 million; DA Davidson also raised its target to $144 from $136 while keeping a Neutral rating.

TD Cowen has increased its 12-month price objective for Cullen/Frost Bankers (NYSE:CFR) to $160.00 from $154.00, while maintaining its current rating on the regional Texas-based bank. The new target is roughly a 15% premium to the stock's most recently reported trading level of $139.11 and sits close to the analysts' high-end target of $163.

The firm said the upward revision follows Cullen/Frost's fourth-quarter 2025 core earnings per share of $2.67, a metric TD Cowen views as beating expectations. TD Cowen noted that the quarter's outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected spread income and fee revenue together with lower operating expenses, the combination of which supported solid profitability metrics across the period.

TD Cowen highlighted a 16% return on common equity for Cullen/Frost over the last twelve months, a figure it cited in support of the bank's maintained profitability. The research note also pointed to ongoing balance sheet momentum and a multi-year expansion strategy that the firm says is beginning to show traction in underlying fundamentals.

Those fundamental trends are reflected in recent top-line growth: Cullen/Frost reported revenue growth of 9.62% over the past twelve months and a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 13%, according to the data cited. In addition, InvestingPro data referenced by the research firm shows 11 analysts have recently revised earnings expectations for the bank upward, reinforcing a generally more optimistic consensus among some market observers.


Separately, Cullen/Frost's quarter-to-quarter financials showed reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP results that also topped forecasts. The company posted earnings per share of $2.56, above the consensus estimate of $2.45, and reported revenue of $603.38 million, outperforming the anticipated $578.07 million.

Market responses to the quarter extended beyond TD Cowen. DA Davidson lifted its price target to $144 from $136 while keeping a Neutral rating, and highlighted that Cullen/Frost has outperformed consensus estimates in 26 of the last 28 reporting quarters. The sustained pattern of beating estimates was cited as evidence of consistent execution against expectations.

Corporate governance developments were also disclosed. The bank announced the election of two new directors, Marsha M. Shields and Jeff Rummel, to its board, and said that director Chris Avery plans to retire in April after serving since 2015. The filing noted that Marsha M. Shields is the CEO and Managing Partner of McCombs Enterprises.

TD Cowen characterized the near-term setup for Cullen/Frost as favorable, pointing to the continued organic expansion trajectory. At the same time, InvestingPro's assessment — as cited in the research — places Cullen/Frost slightly above its Fair Value estimate and assigns the firm an overall financial health score of "FAIR." The bank's long record of returning capital to shareholders was also noted: Cullen/Frost has increased its dividend for 33 consecutive years, a fact the research service highlighted as indicative of management's confidence in ongoing performance.

The combination of better-than-expected quarterly drivers, upward analyst revisions and management actions appear to have underpinned TD Cowen's decision to raise the price target while retaining its rating. Investors will likely monitor how the bank sustains spread and fee income, converts its multi-year expansion into continued revenue growth, and navigates governance changes on the board as they evaluate the stock's forward trajectory.

Risks

  • Cullen/Frost is trading slightly above its Fair Value assessment and carries an overall financial health score of "FAIR," which may limit upside relative to valuation concerns - this impacts regional banking and broader financial sectors.
  • Board leadership changes, including the planned retirement of director Chris Avery in April and the election of two new directors, introduce governance transition risk that could affect strategic continuity - this is relevant to investors in banking equities.
  • Key drivers of the quarter's outperformance included stronger spread and fee income and lower expenses; variability in these items could create earnings uncertainty going forward, affecting regional banks and financial services sectors.

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