TD Cowen has reiterated a Buy rating on ExxonMobil and set a price objective of $135.00, keeping the oil major as its preferred pick among international peers. The price target is effectively in line with ExxonMobil’s latest trading quote of $135.14 and close to the company’s 52-week peak of $135.98.
In its assessment, the research team pointed to several pillars supporting the recommendation. First, ExxonMobil’s balance sheet is characterized as strong, with InvestingPro data showing a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16. Second, the company’s distributions are described as de-risked, and management requires a relatively low oil price to maintain the dividend. The company has paid dividends for 55 consecutive years and currently yields 3.05%.
TD Cowen also flagged the company’s efforts to build earnings streams that are less directly tied to commodity prices. Those non-commodity driven platforms are acknowledged as potential material contributors in the 2030s if development continues as planned.
The note further details recent operational and financial dynamics at ExxonMobil. Management raised its cash flow from operations target after higher Permian production was achieved without corresponding incremental capital spending. Concurrently, the company has reduced spending on certain lower-emission opportunities, according to the research commentary. Over the last twelve months, ExxonMobil produced $23.8 billion in levered free cash flow, which the firm translates to a 4% free cash flow yield.
On geopolitical developments, TD Cowen expects ExxonMobil to realize modest gains from recent changes in Venezuela. The research house reasons that refiners could see upside from crude quality differentials that may outweigh potential negatives to upstream positions.
For the fourth quarter, TD Cowen’s per-share earnings estimate sits $0.13 below the EPS figure implied by ExxonMobil’s 8-K filing. The gap reflects expectations for seasonally elevated operating expenses and the exclusion of one-time gains that were recorded in the third quarter of 2025.
The research note also recounts a string of industry and geopolitical items involving major oil companies. Shell and Exxon Mobil agreed to cancel the previously proposed sale of natural gas assets in the southern North Sea to Viaro Energy, citing evolving commercial and market conditions that left completion conditions unmet. Separately, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and BP have engaged with the Mexican government and Pemex on exploration opportunities that could, in aggregate, yield up to 200,000 barrels per day - with each field potentially producing about 50,000 barrels per day and requiring fresh capital investment.
In another development cited in the note, President Donald Trump announced a proposed $100 billion investment plan by major oil companies in Venezuela, following reports of the departure of President Nicolas Maduro. UBS has separately reiterated a Buy rating on ExxonMobil, emphasizing the scale of its global refining operations, which total 4.1 million barrels per day across 15 refineries. The note also references plans for a meeting between President Trump and energy executives to discuss reviving Venezuela’s oil industry, with the meeting potentially including senior government figures.
These items underscore active strategic moves across the sector, from asset sales and exploration talks to potential large-scale investment proposals tied to geopolitical shifts. TD Cowen’s stance rests on ExxonMobil’s financial resilience, its track record of dividend continuity and the emergence of diversified, non-commodity earnings potential over the medium to long term.
While TD Cowen remains constructive, the firm has adjusted near-term earnings expectations to reflect operational seasonality and the removal of nonrecurring gains. Market participants should view the rating and target in the context of both company-level cash flow metrics and broader industry developments highlighted in the research note.