Overview
TD Cowen has trimmed its price target on American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) to $17.00 from $19.00 while retaining a Buy rating on the stock. The new target still implies substantial upside from the current share price of $13.51, even after the stock fell almost 8% over the past week, according to InvestingPro data.
Analyst rationale and near-term outlook
Analyst Tom Fitzgerald at TD Cowen expects American Airlines' first-quarter earnings per share to land near the low end of the company’s guidance range. Fitzgerald pointed specifically to operational disruptions caused by Winter Storm Fern as a factor weighing on the quarter’s results. Beyond the immediate quarter, the firm also revised its forecasts for the remainder of fiscal 2026 in response to commentary from company management.
Despite the downward adjustment to estimates, TD Cowen noted that forward bookings for American Airlines appear robust, which the firm flagged as a positive offset to near-term earnings pressure. The analyst also indicated he will be watching competitive dynamics in Chicago for potential impacts on the carrier’s yields, as well as the trajectory of corporate travel within indirect booking channels as that segment recovers.
Valuation metric
TD Cowen’s $17.00 price target corresponds to a multiple of 5.7 times its estimated 2027 EV/EBITDAR for American Airlines, as set out in the firm’s model.
Recent company financials
American Airlines reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.16, well below analyst expectations that ranged from $0.34 to $0.38. Revenue for the quarter was $14.0 billion, slightly under the consensus figure of $14.04 billion. Management attributed part of the revenue shortfall to a government shutdown, which the company said reduced revenue by $325 million. The airline also recorded a 2.5% year-over-year decline in passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM), which pressured domestic segment performance.
Responses from other brokerages
Following the earnings release, Evercore ISI reiterated an In Line rating and held a $17.00 price target for the airline. BMO Capital raised its target modestly to $17.00 from $16.75 while maintaining a Market Perform rating. BMO pointed to American Airlines’ 2026 EPS guidance being about 12% above pre-earnings consensus as a consideration in its view.
Network developments
American Airlines is also planning to resume service to Venezuela from the United States for the first time since 2019, marking a network expansion milestone referenced alongside the company’s financial updates.
What analysts will watch next
Analysts are likely to focus on the company’s recovery of PRASM, the impacts of extreme weather on operational performance, competitive pressure in major hubs such as Chicago, and the pace of corporate travel returning through indirect channels. Forward bookings and management guidance will remain central inputs to near-term forecasts and valuation revisions.
This article presents the latest analyst moves and company-reported results used by market participants to reassess valuation and near-term earnings risk for American Airlines.