Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

TD Cowen Boosts Boeing Price Target to $270, Cites Mixed Q4 Results and Long-Term Cash Flow Goals

Analyst lift comes amid strong commercial deliveries, a KC-46 charge and continued focus on a $10 billion-plus free cash flow target

By Caleb Monroe BA
TD Cowen Boosts Boeing Price Target to $270, Cites Mixed Q4 Results and Long-Term Cash Flow Goals
BA

TD Cowen raised its price target on Boeing to $270 from $260 and kept a Buy rating after the company reported a mixed fourth quarter. The firm cited strong Boeing Commercial Airplanes deliveries but also noted a $565 million KC-46-related charge. Boeing beat fourth-quarter earnings and revenue expectations, reaffirmed a long-term free cash flow target above $10 billion without providing timing, and issued 2026 FCF guidance that incorporates over $3 billion of headwinds.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen increased its Boeing price target to $270 from $260 and maintained a Buy rating; the new target sits above the then-current share price of $244.54 and within an analyst range of $155 to $300.
  • Boeings fourth-quarter results were mixed: strong Boeing Commercial Airplanes deliveries offset by a $565 million KC-46 program charge; fourth-quarter EPS was $9.92 versus an expected loss of $0.45 and revenue was $23.9 billion versus an expected $22.4 billion.
  • The company reaffirmed a free cash flow target above $10 billion without a timeline; 2026 FCF guidance of $1-3 billion includes over $3 billion of headwinds that are expected to decline over time.

TD Cowen raised its price target on Boeing to $270 from $260 and retained a Buy rating, reflecting the firms view on the company despite uneven quarterly results. The new target implies upside relative to Boeings then-current share price of $244.54, while analyst price targets on the stock range between $155 and $300.

In its assessment, TD Cowen described Boeings fourth-quarter performance as mixed. The firm pointed to robust deliveries from Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) as a positive operational signal, but also highlighted a $565 million charge tied to the KC-46 tanker program as a substantive negative impacting results.

Company-reported financials for the fourth quarter of 2025 were stronger than analysts expected. Boeing posted earnings per share of $9.92, versus an anticipated loss of $0.45, and revenue of $23.9 billion compared with forecasts of $22.4 billion. Separately, another research firm, Vertical Research Partners, raised its Boeing price target from $250 to $281 and kept a Buy rating, citing operational stabilization and the resolution of key portfolio items as supporting factors.

Boeing reiterated a long-term free cash flow (FCF) objective of more than $10 billion, but did not attach a specific timetable for reaching that milestone. TD Cowen further noted that Boeings 2026 free cash flow guidance of $1 billion to $3 billion includes in excess of $3 billion of headwinds that the firm expects to wane over time.

On a trailing-twelve-month basis, revenue growth stood at 10.18 percent, while Boeing remained unprofitable over that period. Additional market-focused analysis indicates the shares are trading above a calculated fair value and that the stocks relative strength index (RSI) points to overbought conditions.


Context and market reaction

The combination of an upward price-target revision and retained Buy ratings from multiple research houses follows a quarter in which Boeing delivered stronger-than-expected top- and bottom-line results, even as program charges and near-term cash-flow headwinds remain. The divergence between operational progress in the commercial airplane business and costs tied to defense programs helps explain the mixed characterization of the quarter.

This update leaves several items for investors to monitor, including the timing for achieving the $10 billion-plus FCF goal, the trajectory of the KC-46-related charge impact, and whether the projected headwinds to 2026 FCF abate as anticipated.

Risks

  • A $565 million charge tied to the KC-46 program could continue to weigh on near-term profitability and cash flows - this primarily affects the defense segment.
  • Boeing remains unprofitable on a trailing-twelve-month basis despite revenue growth of 10.18 percent, which introduces earnings and balance-sheet risk for equity investors and credit market participants.
  • Market metrics indicate the stock may be trading above its fair value with RSI showing overbought conditions, raising the risk of short-term price volatility for investors in aerospace and related markets.

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