Deckers Outdoor is poised to release its fiscal third-quarter earnings on January 29, and Stifel has reaffirmed its Buy rating on the stock, setting a price target of $117. The anticipation is grounded in expectations that Deckers will surpass both revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates for the quarter. Stifel suggests this positive performance might prompt a modest increase to the company’s full-year 2026 guidance, envisioning approximately $25 million in added revenue and a $0.10 boost in EPS.
This forecast coincides with current market data, where Deckers trades at a price-to-earnings ratio near 15.05 and demonstrates a price/earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.77. These valuation metrics imply the stock could be undervalued relative to its growth opportunities.
A significant contributor to this outlook is the UGG brand, which typically generates about two-thirds of Deckers’ quarterly revenue during the seasonally critical third quarter. Stifel researchers highlight that the brand's performance positions the company well for potential upsides relative to what they describe as “characteristically conservative guidance.”
Additional channel checks reveal a more favorable off-price mix for UGG products compared to the previous year, alongside market share improvements at retailers such as Dick’s Sporting Goods. These benefits were aided by timely cold weather coinciding with the Black Friday sales period, reinforcing sales momentum.
Stifel characterizes Deckers as a growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) opportunity, emphasizing the strength of its two pioneering categories. The investment thesis rests on projections for consolidated revenue to grow by high single-digit percentages and adjusted EPS to advance in the low double-digits. This is supported by stable margin expectations and a meaningful contribution from share repurchase programs estimated at an additional four percentage points to EPS growth.
In contrast, other financial analysts present a mixed perspective on Deckers' outlook. Piper Sandler retains an Underweight rating, assigning a $85 price target and expressing reservations about the long-term prospects of the HOKA brand in the U.S. Meanwhile, Baird downgraded Deckers from Outperform to Neutral, noting a moderation in HOKA's previously strong double-digit growth trajectory.
Needham has removed Deckers from its Conviction List yet maintains a Buy rating, citing emerging “fundamental cracks” since 2025. Conversely, UBS maintains a more optimistic stance with a reiterated Buy rating and a $157 price target. UBS underscores HOKA’s growth potential, projecting a 13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales over four years and predicting this will contribute to a 10% four-year EPS CAGR for Deckers.
This array of analyst opinions underscores a varied outlook for Deckers Outdoor, with divergent expectations around the sustainability and magnitude of growth, especially concerning the HOKA brand. The upcoming earnings report will provide additional clarity on how these dynamics are unfolding.
Investors should weigh these differing views against the backdrop of current market valuations and recent brand-level performance indicators ahead of the earnings release scheduled in late January.
Stifel continues to recommend Deckers Outdoor stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $117, expressing optimism ahead of the company's upcoming fiscal third-quarter earnings announcement. The firm forecasts better-than-expected revenue and adjusted earnings per share, with potential for a small upward revision to full-year guidance. The outlook is supported by strong seasonal performance of the UGG brand and favorable channel dynamics noted during critical sales periods. However, analyst opinions on Deckers' growth trajectory remain mixed across the market.
Key Points
- Stifel maintains Buy rating with $117 target ahead of Deckers’ Q3 earnings, anticipating outperforming revenue and EPS estimates.
- UGG's strong seasonal demand and favorable off-price product mix contribute to optimistic revenue projections and potential full-year guidance increase.
- Contrasting analyst opinions on Deckers’ future growth, particularly concerning HOKA brand’s performance, reflect mixed market sentiment.
Risks
- Piper Sandler’s Underweight stance signals concerns about HOKA’s long-term prospects in the competitive U.S. market, highlighting potential brand risk for Deckers.
- Baird’s downgrade and Needham’s removal from Conviction List point to moderating growth and possible fundamental challenges affecting investor confidence.
- Differing analyst price targets and ratings introduce uncertainty about Deckers’ valuation and expected performance, impacting investor decision-making.