Stifel has trimmed its price target on ArcBest Corp to $94.00 from $96.00 but left its Buy rating intact. The new target remains below the analyst high target of $120, while it sits above ArcBest’s most recent trading price of $90.22. According to available analyst tracking data, four analysts have recently lowered their earnings projections for the upcoming period.
The adjustment by Stifel follows fourth-quarter 2025 results in which ArcBest reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.36, missing both Stifel’s and consensus estimates of $0.42. That result equates to a 14.29% negative surprise versus expected EPS. Despite the shortfall, the company was profitable on a trailing twelve-month basis, with diluted EPS of $2.62.
Operationally, ArcBest showed better-than-expected efficiency. Stifel’s review found the Asset Based Operating Ratio and the Asset Light Operating Ratio came in approximately 30 basis points and 50 basis points ahead of its assumptions, respectively. Management attributed these improvements to ongoing productivity and efficiency initiatives underway across the business.
Those operational gains occurred against a backdrop of a challenging revenue environment. ArcBest reported a 4.04% decline in revenue over the last twelve months. For the fourth quarter specifically, revenue of $973 million slightly exceeded the projection of $968.1 million.
Stifel’s analysis traces the EPS shortfall primarily to a $3.6 million decline in EBIT within the Corporate segment, headwinds stemming from Other income and expense, and a higher-than-expected tax rate. The firm noted that demand remains soft, though company management signaled early signs of supply tightening and expressed confidence in initial progress on the recently announced operational transformation. Stifel described a "meaningful opportunity" if ArcBest can achieve its 2028 mid-term targets.
Market reactions from other brokers were mixed but generally constructive. Jefferies raised its price target on ArcBest to $110 from $95 and maintained a Buy rating, citing strong margin performance in the fourth quarter. Wells Fargo also raised its target, to $85 from $74, pointing to improved Asset-Based volume and margin trends. In addition, Wells Fargo adjusted its first-quarter 2026 earnings estimate to $0.16 per share from a prior estimate of negative $0.09.
Stifel’s modest reduction in target — coupled with retained Buy conviction — underscores a balance between near-term earnings pressures and the potential for margin recovery driven by the company’s efficiency efforts. The company’s slight revenue beat and stronger-than-expected operating ratios provide some support for that view, even as specific corporate-level headwinds trimmed the quarter’s bottom-line outcome.
Investors and analysts will likely watch closely how management executes on its operational transformation and whether benefits in Asset Based and Asset Light segments persist amid soft demand. The split among analyst target adjustments reflects differing assessments of the sustainability of margin gains versus the impact of corporate and tax-related headwinds on near-term profitability.