Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

Stephens Trims Bank of Marin Price Target to $29 While Keeping Overweight Call

Analyst lowers 2026 EPS forecast amid higher expenses even as recent quarters show revenue beats and improving credit commentary

By Jordan Park BMRC
Stephens Trims Bank of Marin Price Target to $29 While Keeping Overweight Call
BMRC

Stephens reduced its price objective on Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ:BMRC) from $30.00 to $29.00 but retained an Overweight rating. The firm trimmed its 2026 operating EPS projection by 7% to $2.13, citing elevated expense growth partially offset by stronger loan growth assumptions. Recent company results showed a fourth-quarter operating EPS beat and revenue slightly above Street estimates, while a separate fourth-quarter 2025 reported loss in EPS drew attention.

Key Points

  • Stephens cut its price target on Bank of Marin to $29.00 from $30.00 while keeping an Overweight rating; current trading near $27.41 and analyst targets range $29 to $33.
  • Fourth-quarter operating EPS of $0.59 beat Stephens' $0.48 estimate and the Street's $0.52 consensus; pre-provision net revenue exceeded expectations by 7.5% versus Stephens and 10.5% versus the Street.
  • Stephens reduced 2026 operating EPS estimate by 7% to $2.13 due to higher expense growth, offset in part by improved loan growth assumptions and anticipated net interest margin benefits from securities repositioning.

Stephens has revised down its price target for Bank of Marin Bancorp (NASDAQ:BMRC) to $29.00 from $30.00 but left its stance on the shares unchanged, maintaining an Overweight rating. The stock is trading near $27.41 and sits close to InvestingPro's Fair Value range, where analyst targets span $29 to $33.

The move follows Bank of Marin's fourth-quarter operating results, which delivered an operating EPS of $0.59. That result exceeded Stephens' internal projection of $0.48 and outperformed the consensus Street estimate of $0.52. Pre-provision net revenue also came in ahead of expectations - 7.5% above Stephens' forecast and 10.5% higher than the Street estimate.

Data from InvestingPro indicate there has been upward revision activity among sell-side analysts, with three analysts raising their earnings estimates for the upcoming period. Stephens, however, adjusted its 2026 operating EPS forecast downward by 7% to $2.13. The firm attributed the reduction primarily to higher expense growth assumptions, while noting this was partially mitigated by a higher loan growth outlook - now assumed at 4.6% versus a prior estimate of 3.2%.

Looking at net interest margin dynamics, Stephens expects Bank of Marin's first-quarter margin to benefit from a mid-quarter securities repositioning that pushed spot securities yields about 53 basis points higher than in the fourth quarter. The firm also referenced late-fourth-quarter weighted loan growth as a supporting factor for margin improvement.

On asset quality and credit commentary, Stephens flagged improving credit trends in San Francisco and within office property exposures. The analyst also cited confidence regarding a reported 33% increase in special mention loans, noting that the bank's limited exposure to the wine industry is a factor in its assessment.

In a separate set of disclosures, Bank of Marin reported a notable earnings miss for the fourth quarter of 2025, registering an EPS loss of $2.49 compared with a forecasted $0.50. Revenue in that period was $34 million, modestly above the expected $33.1 million. Market commentary in relation to these results referenced investor optimism tied to strategic initiatives and forward guidance, while observers noted the tension between the EPS shortfall and slightly positive revenue variance. Analysts and investors are monitoring these developments for indications of near-term performance and trajectory.


Contextual note: The information above reflects recent analyst adjustments, company-reported figures, and commentary cited by Stephens and InvestingPro. The reporting is limited to the statements and data provided in those items and does not introduce additional estimates or external analysis.

Risks

  • Higher expense growth is expected to reduce 2026 operating EPS, posing earnings risk for the banking sector and regional lenders.
  • Credit dynamics in San Francisco and exposure to office properties remain areas of uncertainty that could affect commercial real estate-related credit performance.
  • A reported fourth-quarter 2025 EPS loss of $2.49, versus an expected $0.50, underscores near-term earnings volatility even as revenue modestly exceeded expectations.

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