Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Stephens Lifts TriCo Bancshares Price Target After Strong Q4 Results

Analyst maintains Overweight as earnings, margin improvements and shareholder actions underscore bank's momentum

By Hana Yamamoto TCBK
Stephens Lifts TriCo Bancshares Price Target After Strong Q4 Results
TCBK

Stephens increased its price objective for TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) to $55.00 from $54.00 and kept an Overweight rating following a quarterly performance that outpaced both the firm's and the Street's forecasts. Strength in operating earnings, pre-provision net revenue and lower deposit costs contributed to margin upside, while the company announced executive retirement and a continued quarterly dividend.

Key Points

  • Stephens raised its price target on TriCo to $55.00 from $54.00 and maintained an Overweight rating, citing better-than-expected quarterly results.
  • Q4 operating EPS of $1.02 beat Stephens' $0.95 estimate and the Street's $0.99 consensus; pre-provision net revenue was $49.5 million, ahead of both Stephens and the Street.
  • Deposit cost reductions drove a 9 basis point net interest margin beat versus Street expectations; Stephens expects continued NIM tailwinds into Q1 from lower demand and savings spot rates.

Summary: Stephens raised its price target on TriCo Bancshares to $55.00 from $54.00 on Monday and reiterated an Overweight rating. The move follows fourth-quarter results that beat expectations on multiple metrics and included a notable reduction in deposit funding costs. TriCo also confirmed leadership changes and declared another quarterly cash dividend.


Key results and valuation snapshot

  • Stephens adjusted its price target to $55.00 from $54.00 while keeping an Overweight recommendation.
  • TriCo was trading at $49.80 at the time of the update; InvestingPro analysis indicated the shares appeared undervalued with a P/E of 13.51 and a dividend yield of 2.88%.

Quarterly performance

TriCo reported fourth-quarter operating earnings per share of $1.02. That result exceeded Stephens' internal estimate of $0.95 and was above the Street consensus of $0.99. The bank's pre-provision net revenue reached $49.5 million, which topped Stephens' forecast by 2.5% and surpassed the Street expectation by 5.4%.

On a trailing-twelve-month basis, InvestingPro data showed TriCo recorded diluted earnings per share of $3.70. Analyst projections cited in the update forecast EPS of $3.97 for fiscal year 2026.

Margin and funding dynamics

Stephens emphasized TriCo's meaningful reduction in deposit costs during the quarter, calling this a driver of an outperformance in net interest margin. The firm quantified a 9 basis point net interest margin beat versus Street expectations. In addition, Stephens noted that end-of-period spot rates for demand and savings balances were 14 basis points lower than the quarterly average, a trend the firm expects to provide continued net interest margin tailwinds into the first quarter.

2026 outlook and balance-sheet expectations

Stephens left its 2026 operating earnings per share forecast essentially unchanged, making a slight adjustment to $3.99 from a prior $4.00. The research house projects the company will remain under $10 billion in total assets in 2025 for the fourth straight year, but that TriCo is likely to exceed the $10 billion mark in 2026.

Mergers and acquisitions considerations

M&A remains a focal point in Stephens' analysis. The firm expects TriCo to act as a buyer in the near term. However, Stephens also outlined an alternative outcome: if M&A activity does not materialize in the first half of 2026, the probability of a takeout scenario could rise as the year progresses.

Corporate developments and shareholder returns

TriCo announced the retirement of John S. Fleshood, formerly executive vice president and chief operating officer, and clarified his departure was not the result of any disagreements with the company's operations, policies, or practices. The board expressed its appreciation for his service, and the company's statement said his unvested restricted stock units will continue to vest on their original schedule.

Separately, TriCo declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share on common stock. This represents the company's 145th consecutive quarterly dividend. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on December 19, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 5, 2025.


Implications - The combination of an analyst price-target increase, better-than-expected operating results, margin tailwinds from lower deposit costs, and an ongoing dividend program underscores Stephens' constructive view on TriCo, while M&A developments remain an important watch item for investors.

Risks

  • M&A uncertainty - Stephens expects TriCo to be a near-term buyer, but if merger activity does not occur in the first half of 2026, the probability of a takeout scenario may increase later in the year; this introduces strategic uncertainty affecting the banking and M&A market.
  • Asset threshold timing - Stephens projects TriCo will remain under $10 billion in assets in 2025 but likely surpass that level in 2026; timing and size of asset growth could affect regulatory profile and capital planning in the banking sector.
  • Executive transition - The retirement of TriCo's EVP and COO, while not linked to disagreements, creates an operational change that investors may monitor for potential short-term management or execution risks in the regional banking sector.

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