Overview
Stephens raised its price objective on Atlantic Union Bankshares (NYSE:AUB) to $45.00 from $43.00 and retained an Overweight rating, reflecting the firm’s improved view of the bank’s near-term revenue drivers. The updated target implies roughly a 15% upside versus the stock’s recent price of $39.17, with shares trading close to their 52-week high of $40.71.
Quarterly performance highlights
Atlantic Union reported pre-provision net revenue (PPNR) of $186.7 million for the quarter, which beat consensus estimates by 6.1%. The outperformance was attributed primarily to stronger net interest income and fee revenue. Expenses were reported in line with expectations.
The bank posted end-of-period loan growth annualized at 6.4%, modestly ahead of consensus of 5.5%. Net interest margin (NIM) expanded to 3.96%, an improvement of 13 basis points quarter-over-quarter and higher than the consensus estimate of 3.87%.
InvestingPro data referenced by analysts shows Atlantic Union has paid dividends for 32 consecutive years and yields 3.81% at current levels.
Guidance, estimates and balance-sheet considerations
Stephens said Atlantic Union’s 2026 PPNR guidance remained unchanged. However, the research house raised its own 2026 PPNR estimates by 1.3%, driven by a more favorable outlook on fee income and expense trends.
Stephens also flagged the potential for share repurchases as a meaningful shareholder-return catalyst, noting that buybacks could follow if Atlantic Union reaches a common equity tier 1 (CET-1) capital ratio of roughly 10.5% by mid-year.
Valuation and performance metrics
The bank is valued at approximately 1.75 times estimated 2026 tangible book value, while targeting a return on tangible common equity in the 19% to 20% range. Other notable metrics include a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.18 and a six-month total return of 20.15%.
Other broker reactions to the quarter
Following Atlantic Union’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which showed earnings per share of $0.97 versus a consensus of $0.86 and revenue of $391.79 million versus an expected $379.01 million, multiple firms adjusted their views.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its price target to $40.00 while maintaining its existing rating, citing higher net interest income and fee income that were partly offset by increased expenses. TD Cowen increased its price target to $46.00 and kept a Buy rating, noting that strong revenue growth and lower provision expenses supported the higher target.
Bottom line
Analysts pointed to a combination of improved core earnings drivers and solid credit metrics as reasons for raising targets and remaining constructive on the stock. The combination of margin expansion, loan growth and consistent dividend payments underpins the current positive stance among multiple research firms.
Key takeaways
- Stephens raised its price target on AUB to $45 and kept an Overweight rating, implying about 15% upside from $39.17.
- Quarterly PPNR of $186.7 million beat consensus by 6.1%, supported by stronger net interest income and fees; expenses were in line with expectations.
- Loan growth and NIM outperformed consensus, with annualized loan growth of 6.4% and NIM at 3.96% (13 bps QoQ improvement).
Risks and uncertainties
- Share repurchases are contingent on reaching a CET-1 ratio near 10.5% by mid-year, introducing timing and capital-allocation uncertainty for investors.
- Higher operating expenses were noted by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods as offsetting some revenue gains, representing a potential pressure point for margins.
- Provision levels and revenue composition remain important variables; while TD Cowen cited lower provisions as supportive, any reversal could affect profitability.
Note: All figures, analyst actions and comparisons referenced are drawn from the company’s reported results and the analysts’ published notes.