RBC Capital has revised its valuation of Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ACAD), cutting the firm's price target to $31.00 from $35.00 while retaining an Outperform rating on the shares. The move follows a negative trend vote issued by the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) on Acadia’s trofinetide marketing application, a development that reduces the immediate likelihood of the drug becoming a long-term revenue source in Europe.
According to InvestingPro data, Acadia shares are trading at $25.63, below the service’s Fair Value estimate, a condition that implies potential upside relative to current market pricing even after RBC’s lower target. The same data set also flags a positive short-term liquidity picture for the company: Acadia reportedly holds more cash than debt, with liquid assets sufficient to cover short-term obligations. The firm’s overall financial health score registers at 3.62, a level described as "GREAT."
RBC’s reassessment centers on the CHMP’s negative trend vote for Daybue - the name used in regulatory discussion for trofinetide - following an oral explanation meeting. While RBC notes the company has asked for a re-examination, the firm has materially lowered its modeled probability of European success to 20% from a prior 70% and has extended expected timing assumptions tied to a potential approval pathway.
The brokerage underscores that not all negative CHMP outcomes are terminal: its analysis indicates roughly 20% of negative opinions are ultimately reversed. That statistical point leaves a non-zero chance that a re-examination could alter the outcome. RBC also observes that many of the CHMP’s questions echo those previously raised by other regulators and may be addressable through the re-examination process.
Beyond the RBC action, several other brokerages reiterated bullish stances on Acadia despite the regulatory hurdle. H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating and a $37.00 price target, while Citizens reiterated a Market Outperform rating with a $34.00 target. Those positions reflect continuing conviction among some analysts in the company’s prospects even as Europe presents a near-term challenge.
Regulatory context in the article notes the CHMP’s negative trend vote followed an oral explanation session on the Marketing Authorization Application for trofinetide, which has already secured approvals in the United States, Canada, and Israel for treating Rett syndrome. Acadia has indicated plans to request a re-examination once the CHMP’s final vote is formalized in February. The company says it will focus on addressing the regulator’s concerns to pursue European authorization.
RBC also flagged a potential market event that could affect sentiment: upcoming data from Acadia’s '204 program, where the firm sees growing investor interest. RBC projects the shares could rally into and through those data releases if results align with investor expectations.
Investors will be watching two levers in the near term - regulatory developments in Europe and clinical readouts tied to the '204 program - while the company’s balance sheet strength provides a buffer against immediate financing pressure. The reduced probability of European approval and the timing changes in RBC’s model underlie the lower price target, even as other analysts retain higher objective prices.