RBC Capital has reiterated a Sector Perform rating on Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT) and kept its $18.00 price target, citing concerns that the company’s momentum in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) treatments is losing speed. The stock was trading at $21.13 at the time of the report and has suffered an 82% drop over the prior year, though data flagged by InvestingPro indicates a 77% recovery over the last six months.
In its analysis, RBC highlights that utilization of ELEVIDYS, Sarepta’s gene therapy for DMD, is expected to continue slowing through the second half of 2025. The firm notes the initial patient backlog has been largely addressed and ongoing usage is now primarily among newly diagnosed patients, reducing near-term tailwinds for growth.
RBC questions consensus forecasts for ELEVIDYS sales in 2026. While market consensus sits at roughly $570 million, RBC’s internal projection for the therapy is nearer to $430 million. That caution is set against the backdrop of the company’s cash dynamics - InvestingPro data show Sarepta recorded negative free cash flow of $381 million and a net loss of $272 million over the last twelve months.
The firm also comments on Sarepta’s base franchise of phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomers - PMOs - which remain in steady use despite a missed confirmatory study. RBC expects PMO revenues to diminish over time if more convenient competitive options enter the market.
Given these commercial pressures, RBC retains a neutral stance on Sarepta and underscores that intensified commercial risk across the portfolio increases pressure on the company’s early-stage DM1 and FSHD programs to show clear differentiation in order to support future revenue growth.
Financial snapshot and recent company disclosures
Sarepta released preliminary unaudited financial results for 2025 showing total net product revenue of $1.86 billion. ELEVIDYS produced $898.7 million in revenue for the year, though fourth-quarter receipts for the gene therapy were reported at $110.4 million. The company attributed the Q4 impact to a severe year-end flu season and the rescheduling of patient infusions.
The company is scheduled to present three-year topline functional results from its Phase 3 EMBARK study of ELEVIDYS in Duchenne patients. The EMBARK cohort included ambulatory patients who were between four and seven years old at the time of treatment.
Analyst divergence
The market shows differing analyst opinions on Sarepta’s trajectory. H.C. Wainwright reiterated a Sell rating, citing preliminary results that fell short of the company’s $500 million annual floor guidance for ELEVIDYS. By contrast, Mizuho has maintained an Outperform rating with a $26 price target and remains confident the gene therapy could exceed $500 million in yearly sales.
These varying views reflect active debate among analysts about uptake trends for ELEVIDYS, the sustainability of PMO revenues, and the company’s ability to translate early-stage assets into differentiated commercial candidates.
Outlook and investor implications
RBC’s neutral recommendation and reduced sales forecast for ELEVIDYS signal heightened uncertainty about the near-term growth trajectory for Sarepta. The company’s negative free cash flow and recent net loss weigh on its financial flexibility, while commercial dynamics in DMD and potential competitive entrants create additional execution risk. Upcoming EMBARK topline data and how the market reconciles divergent analyst estimates will likely be watched closely by investors.