Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

RBC Capital Uplifts American Axle & Manufacturing Price Target to $12 Citing Robust Performance

American Axle shows strong earnings and strategic progress with positive analyst ratings and merger approvals

By Jordan Park AXL
RBC Capital Uplifts American Axle & Manufacturing Price Target to $12 Citing Robust Performance
AXL

RBC Capital has increased its price target for American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (NYSE: AXL) to $12, up from $9, signaling confidence in the company's near-term growth prospects. The upgrade reflects better than expected driveline segment results and favorable global automotive production trends. Meanwhile, the company's recent quarterly earnings beat EPS projections but missed revenue estimates. Regulatory clearance for American Axle's merger with Dowlais Group marks another strategic milestone, positioning the firm for continued market activity.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital boosted its price target on American Axle from $9 to $12, suggesting a 45% upside from current prices based on strong segment performance and global auto production.
  • American Axle reported Q3 2025 earnings beating EPS expectations but missing revenue projections, with the Driveline segment contributing positively to EBITDA.
  • The merger between American Axle and Dowlais Group has secured regulatory approval from China and awaits court sanction, expected to close early 2026.

RBC Capital has raised its price target on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (NYSE: AXL) to $12.00, a significant increase from the previous $9.00 target, while reaffirming an Outperform rating on the stock. This updated price projection implies a potential upside of approximately 45% relative to current market prices, reflecting RBC’s growing confidence in American Axle’s financial and operational performance.

Over the past six months, American Axle's stock has already demonstrated notable momentum, with a 64.78% increase according to InvestingPro data, underscoring the company's strong traction in the market. RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan pointed to the company’s stronger than expected results in its Driveline (DWL) segment and buoyant global automotive production rates as pivotal factors driving this more optimistic valuation.

In the valuation model utilized by RBC Capital, incorporating the full fruition of $300 million in potential synergies and applying peer multiples could suggest an even higher theoretical share value approaching $21. However, the firm has taken a conservative stance by factoring in only $200 million in synergies for the current $12 price target. American Axle was also highlighted as RBC Capital’s leading idea in their preview for the fourth quarter of 2025, where a multiple of four times peer valuation was employed.

Complementing the bullish analyst outlook, American Axle reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings results. The company surpassed earnings per share (EPS) expectations, though revenue fell short of forecasts. Despite this mixed outcome, the Driveline segment was credited with driving a favorable EBITDA performance. Analysts at Stifel described the revenue performance as solid but maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a price target of $7.00.

In addition to earnings performance, American Axle’s strategic initiatives made important strides with the proposed merger involving Dowlais Group. The deal has successfully cleared a major regulatory obstacle, earning approval from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation. This clearance satisfies all relevant regulatory and antitrust requirements. The transaction now awaits court sanction and is anticipated to complete by early February 2026, marking a key advance in the company’s expansion and financial strategy.

These developments collectively illustrate American Axle’s strengthening market position, supported by robust operational metrics and significant strategic transactions. Going forward, the company’s performance and merger completion will be important factors to monitor for investors and market participants alike.

Risks

  • Revenue for Q3 2025 fell short of forecasts despite EPS beats, indicating potential revenue growth challenges.
  • The conservative price target reflects uncertainty in realizing full anticipated synergies, with only $200 million factored compared to $300 million potential.
  • The merger completion still depends on pending court approval, which introduces timing and execution risk.

More from Analyst Ratings

KeyBanc Keeps Cautious View on LyondellBasell After Difficult Quarter, Cites Cash-Flow Limits vs. Dividend Feb 2, 2026 KeyBanc Sticks with Overweight on Murphy USA, Sees Near-Term Upside as Fuel Margins Improve Feb 2, 2026 KeyBanc Stands by Overweight Call on AppFolio, Flags ARPU and Product Drivers for 2026 Feb 2, 2026 KeyBanc Sticks With Overweight on Eastman; $74 Target Reflects Modest Upside Feb 2, 2026 Bernstein Boosts SanDisk Price Target to $1,000 After Robust Q2; Peers Follow Suit Feb 2, 2026