Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

RBC Capital Affirms Outperform Rating on APi Group Amid Robust Growth Projections

Strong revenue momentum and strategic acquisitions bolster positive outlook

By Priya Menon APG
RBC Capital Affirms Outperform Rating on APi Group Amid Robust Growth Projections
APG

RBC Capital has maintained its Outperform rating and set a $45 price target on APi Group Corporation, underpinned by solid revenue growth, expanding margins, and strategic acquisitions. APi Group’s strong backlog and favorable market conditions support expectations for continued fiscal strength through 2026.

Key Points

  • APi Group shows strong revenue growth with a 10.69% increase over the past year to $7.66 billion and $882 million in EBITDA.
  • Fiscal 2026 projections include organic revenue growth of 5-7%, margin expansion of over 50 basis points, and high EBITDA-to-adjusted free cash flow conversion exceeding 75%.
  • Strategic tuck-in acquisitions and favorable industry dynamics such as data center construction and improved permitting are expected to support continued growth and margin improvement.

RBC Capital has sustained its positive stance on APi Group Corporation (NYSE: APG) by reaffirming an Outperform rating coupled with a $45.00 price target. This valuation implies a potential 6% gain relative to the current trading price of $42.41. According to InvestingPro data, APi Group has delivered a significant 66.79% return over the past 12 months and remains close to its 52-week peak of $43.26.

The financial outlook presented by RBC Capital analyst Ashish Sabadra anticipates that APi Group will meet or exceed the midpoint guidance for fiscal 2025 net revenues and adjusted EBITDA. The company demonstrated robust financial performance over the previous year, achieving a 10.69% revenue increase, reaching $7.66 billion, alongside generating $882 million in EBITDA.

Looking forward to fiscal 2026, expectations point to organic revenue growth between 5% and 7%, with reported revenue growth estimated at 6% to 8%. In addition, margin improvements of more than 50 basis points and a strong EBITDA-to-adjusted free cash flow conversion rate exceeding 75% are forecasted.

APi Group’s favorable outlook is grounded in a substantial backlog of projects and benefits from several sector dynamics, including increased data center construction activity, accelerated permitting processes, and enhanced capital expenditure provisions under the OBBBA legislation. These factors collectively could generate additional upside potential for the firm.

Moreover, RBC highlights the role of accretive tuck-in acquisitions in fueling revenue expansion, alongside efforts in pricing discipline, selective project engagement, and adoption of new technologies, aimed at further boosting margin performance.

Recent corporate developments include APi Group’s declaration of a stock dividend related to Series A preferred shares. Its Board of Directors approved the issuance of over 15 million common shares as a dividend following a three-for-two stock split scheduled for June 2025. The company is also advancing its acquisition strategy by moving to purchase CertaSite, a commercial fire protection and life safety provider, from The Riverside Company. This transaction is expected to complete in the first quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approval.

Within the analyst community, UBS has increased its price target on APi Group to $49 while maintaining a Buy rating. RBC Capital has similarly raised its target to $45, emphasizing the growth prospects within the company’s Specialty Services segment. Jefferies has also upgraded its price target to $46, citing the strategic benefits associated with the CertaSite acquisition. Collectively, these analyst actions underscore a positive growth outlook for APi Group.

Investors now await the company’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report with anticipation for potentially positive commentary from management, reflective of sustained momentum.

Risks

  • Completion of planned acquisitions such as CertaSite remains contingent on regulatory approvals, posing potential delays or complications.
  • Market and economic conditions affecting sectors like commercial fire protection, life safety, and data center construction may impact revenue and margin projections.
  • Execution risks related to pricing strategies, project selection, and technology initiatives could influence the anticipated margin expansions.

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