Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

Raymond James Upholds Outperform on FirstSun After Strong Q4 2025; $44 Target Set

Bank tops estimates on core earnings and revenue drivers, while acquisition timing and execution remain key to broader upside

By Avery Klein FSUN
Raymond James Upholds Outperform on FirstSun After Strong Q4 2025; $44 Target Set
FSUN

Raymond James has reiterated an Outperform rating on FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ:FSUN) and set a $44.00 price target following the bank's fourth-quarter 2025 results. The firm highlighted stronger-than-expected net interest margin and fee income as the primary drivers of the beat, while noting modest operational execution requirements tied to a pending acquisition and future revenue synergies.

Key Points

  • Raymond James reiterated an Outperform rating on FirstSun Capital Bancorp with a $44.00 price target following Q4 2025 results.
  • Q4 outperformance driven by a higher-than-expected net interest margin and stronger fee income from mortgage, loan syndication and swap fees.
  • FirstSun reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $0.95 versus the $0.85 consensus and quarterly revenue of $110.21 million versus $107.61 million expected; revenue growth was 10.48% over the last twelve months and 13% CAGR over five years.

Raymond James reaffirmed its Outperform rating on FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ:FSUN) and retained a $44.00 price target in the wake of the company's fourth-quarter 2025 financial report. That price target sits at the lower bound of analyst projections, with InvestingPro data indicating a high analyst target of $47.00 and implying about an 18% upside from current levels.

The bank exceeded both analyst forecasts and consensus expectations on core earnings per share and pre-provision net revenue for the quarter. Raymond James attributed the outperformance primarily to a net interest margin that came in above expectations, which lifted net interest income, together with stronger fee income generated from mortgage activities, loan syndication and swap-related fees.

FirstSun reported diluted earnings per share of $3.16 over the last twelve months. By contrast, analysts were projecting $3.48 for fiscal year 2025, according to InvestingPro data. The company also recorded lower credit costs in the quarter as credit metrics showed improvement, a factor that helped support the reported earnings upside.

However, the quarter was not without headwinds. Management reported a decline in loans, only minimal deposit growth and higher-than-expected noninterest expenses, which partially offset the gains from net interest income and fee revenue. InvestingPro’s financial assessment assigns FirstSun an overall "GOOD" financial health score of 2.53, highlighting particularly strong metrics in relative value and growth potential.

Raymond James commented on FirstSun’s initial standalone outlook for 2026, describing it as implying modest positive operating leverage and characterizing the outlook as generally in line with or better than previous expectations. The firm continues to model a mid-year close for FirstSun’s pending acquisition of FFWM, and it noted that the company’s revenue growth trend supports a constructive view. FirstSun’s revenue expansion has measured 10.48% over the last twelve months and the company has sustained a 13% compound annual growth rate over the past five years.

On valuation, Raymond James described the stock as trading at approximately 7.5 times estimated 2027 earnings per share. The firm emphasized that management will need to execute planned initiatives and realize potential revenue synergies from the FFWM acquisition to broaden investor support. InvestingPro’s data show FirstSun trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.29 with a PEG ratio of 3.35, a combination that InvestingPro characterizes as the stock carrying a relatively high P/E in light of near-term earnings growth expectations.

Additional reported quarterly metrics reinforce the view of a stronger quarter. FirstSun announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.95 for Q4 2025, topping the $0.85 consensus and producing an EPS surprise of 11.76%. Quarterly revenue came in at $110.21 million versus the anticipated $107.61 million. Following the earnings release, investor sentiment reportedly skewed positive as the company outperformed the estimates that analysts had set.


In sum, Raymond James maintains a positive stance on FirstSun’s risk-reward profile given recent results and the firm’s model for 2026 and the pending FFWM acquisition. The bank’s superior net interest margin performance and fee income strength underpinned the quarter, while loan contraction, weak deposit growth and elevated noninterest expenses remain items to monitor as management executes on its strategic initiatives.

Risks

  • Execution risk related to planned actions and the realization of revenue synergies from the pending FFWM acquisition - impacts banking and financial services sectors.
  • Operational and earnings pressure from a decline in loans, minimal deposit growth and higher noninterest expenses - impacts bank profitability and margin dynamics.
  • Valuation sensitivity given FirstSun’s P/E and PEG ratios, which indicate the stock may trade at a high multiple relative to near-term earnings growth - impacts equity investors and valuation-driven strategies.

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