Raymond James reaffirmed its Outperform rating on FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ:FSUN) and retained a $44.00 price target in the wake of the company's fourth-quarter 2025 financial report. That price target sits at the lower bound of analyst projections, with InvestingPro data indicating a high analyst target of $47.00 and implying about an 18% upside from current levels.
The bank exceeded both analyst forecasts and consensus expectations on core earnings per share and pre-provision net revenue for the quarter. Raymond James attributed the outperformance primarily to a net interest margin that came in above expectations, which lifted net interest income, together with stronger fee income generated from mortgage activities, loan syndication and swap-related fees.
FirstSun reported diluted earnings per share of $3.16 over the last twelve months. By contrast, analysts were projecting $3.48 for fiscal year 2025, according to InvestingPro data. The company also recorded lower credit costs in the quarter as credit metrics showed improvement, a factor that helped support the reported earnings upside.
However, the quarter was not without headwinds. Management reported a decline in loans, only minimal deposit growth and higher-than-expected noninterest expenses, which partially offset the gains from net interest income and fee revenue. InvestingPro’s financial assessment assigns FirstSun an overall "GOOD" financial health score of 2.53, highlighting particularly strong metrics in relative value and growth potential.
Raymond James commented on FirstSun’s initial standalone outlook for 2026, describing it as implying modest positive operating leverage and characterizing the outlook as generally in line with or better than previous expectations. The firm continues to model a mid-year close for FirstSun’s pending acquisition of FFWM, and it noted that the company’s revenue growth trend supports a constructive view. FirstSun’s revenue expansion has measured 10.48% over the last twelve months and the company has sustained a 13% compound annual growth rate over the past five years.
On valuation, Raymond James described the stock as trading at approximately 7.5 times estimated 2027 earnings per share. The firm emphasized that management will need to execute planned initiatives and realize potential revenue synergies from the FFWM acquisition to broaden investor support. InvestingPro’s data show FirstSun trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.29 with a PEG ratio of 3.35, a combination that InvestingPro characterizes as the stock carrying a relatively high P/E in light of near-term earnings growth expectations.
Additional reported quarterly metrics reinforce the view of a stronger quarter. FirstSun announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.95 for Q4 2025, topping the $0.85 consensus and producing an EPS surprise of 11.76%. Quarterly revenue came in at $110.21 million versus the anticipated $107.61 million. Following the earnings release, investor sentiment reportedly skewed positive as the company outperformed the estimates that analysts had set.
In sum, Raymond James maintains a positive stance on FirstSun’s risk-reward profile given recent results and the firm’s model for 2026 and the pending FFWM acquisition. The bank’s superior net interest margin performance and fee income strength underpinned the quarter, while loan contraction, weak deposit growth and elevated noninterest expenses remain items to monitor as management executes on its strategic initiatives.