Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Raymond James Lowers Meta Target to $800, Cites AI Transition and Rising Costs

Firm keeps Strong Buy while flagging an 'awkward phase' driven by higher expenses and capex as AI progress will shape valuation

By Avery Klein META
Raymond James Lowers Meta Target to $800, Cites AI Transition and Rising Costs
META

Raymond James trimmed its price objective for Meta Platforms to $800 from $825 while retaining a Strong Buy rating, calling the company an "AI Tweener" whose near-term valuation will hinge on artificial intelligence developments amid likely higher expenses and capital spending. The firm still forecasts above-consensus revenue growth for 2026 and 2027 and outlined specific revenue and cost scenarios that would satisfy or strain investor expectations.

Key Points

  • Raymond James cut its Meta price target to $800 from $825 but maintained a Strong Buy rating; the stock trades at $658.76 with analyst targets between $685 and $1,117 - (Sectors impacted: Technology, Interactive Media & Services).
  • The firm expects above-consensus revenue growth of 20% in 2026 and 19% in 2027, compared with Street estimates of 18% and 16%; InvestingPro data shows 21.3% revenue growth over the last twelve months and 82% gross profit margins - (Sectors impacted: Digital advertising, Cloud/AI services).
  • Raymond James labeled Meta an "AI Tweener," tying next-year valuation multiples to the company’s AI progress and basing the new target on a 23x P/E on 2027 estimates; current P/E is 29.3 and market cap is $1.66 trillion.

Raymond James reduced its price target for Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) to $800 from $825 but left its analyst recommendation unchanged at Strong Buy. The firm noted Meta is trading at $658.76, with analyst targets spanning from $685 to $1,117. Using InvestingPro data, Raymond James observed the stock sits roughly 17% below its new target and about 25% under the highest analyst target on the Street.

The firm framed Meta as operating in an "awkward phase," where robust top-line momentum could be counterbalanced by pressure from rising expenses and heavier capital expenditures. Even with the lowered target, Raymond James continues to model revenue growth that outpaces consensus: 20% in 2026 and 19% in 2027, versus Street estimates of 18% and 16%, respectively. Those forecasts align with recent company performance reflected in InvestingPro data, which shows Meta recorded 21.3% revenue growth over the last twelve months along with gross profit margins of 82%.

In Raymond James' framework, Meta is characterized as an "AI Tweener," meaning the company’s valuation multiple over the coming year will be driven primarily by its advancement on AI. The updated price target rests on a 23x price-to-earnings multiple applied to 2027 estimates. At present, Meta trades at a P/E ratio of 29.3 and carries a market capitalization of $1.66 trillion, positioning it as a major company within the Interactive Media & Services sector. InvestingPro's Fair Value model, according to the firm, suggests the stock is fairly valued on a proprietary basis.

Raymond James outlined specific financial thresholds it sees as important for meeting investor expectations. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $60 billion or more - implying year-over-year growth in excess of 24% - and a first-quarter 2026 revenue outlook in the $51 billion to $53 billion range would satisfy those expectations. Offsetting that, however, the firm flagged total expense projections of $150 billion to $155 billion and capital expenditures in the $110 billion to $120 billion band as potential areas that could exceed market expectations and weigh on sentiment.

The firm also identified several catalysts capable of quickly shifting the investment narrative in Meta’s favor. These include a meaningful advancement associated with the next release of Meta’s Llama model, faster monetization of Meta AI and Business AI offerings, or a strategic pivot toward entering the public cloud market.

Other broker commentary ahead of Meta’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings shows a range of views. Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and set a price target of $875, describing its stance as anticipating a "Modest Beat & Bracket Q4" and viewing the Street’s Q4 revenue estimate of $58.3 billion as reasonable. Bank of America Securities maintained a Buy rating with a $810 target and models $59.2 billion in revenue and $8.27 in earnings per share for the quarter, both above consensus. Wells Fargo trimmed its price target to $754 but kept an Overweight rating, reducing its previous target by $41. Stifel also lowered its target to $785 amid concerns about AI investment levels, while continuing to rate the stock Buy and noting strong fourth-quarter results driven by Instagram Reels.

On the regulatory front, Meta recorded a legal win in Brazil where a court suspended an antitrust measure that had restricted the use of third-party AI tools on WhatsApp Business. That measure was part of an investigation by Brazil’s antitrust authority, CADE, into alleged anticompetitive practices.


Taken together, Raymond James' move reflects a nuanced stance - preserving an overall positive rating while tempering the price objective to account for an inflection period in which AI development, expense trajectories, and capital allocation will determine whether the company’s premium valuation is sustained or needs further adjustment.

Risks

  • Higher-than-expected total expenses of $150-155 billion and capital expenditures of $110-120 billion could exceed market expectations and pressure valuation - (Sectors impacted: Technology capital spending, AI infrastructure).
  • If the company fails to deliver specified revenue milestones - fourth-quarter 2025 revenues below $60 billion or a Q1 2026 outlook outside the $51-53 billion range - investor sentiment could deteriorate - (Sectors impacted: Digital advertising, Social media platforms).
  • Delay or underperformance in AI initiatives (including the next Llama release or slower monetization of Meta AI and Business AI) would reduce the likelihood of a rapid narrative change that could lift multiples - (Sectors impacted: AI products and services, Enterprise software).

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