Raymond James has published a technical note on Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM) that signals rising near-term vulnerability in the gold miner's share price. The firm's analysis highlights a cluster of technical readings that, together, suggest a short-term corrective episode could be unfolding.
Key indicators called out by the analysts include negative price momentum, a stalling of Newmont's relative strength compared with the S&P 500, and early indications of selling pressure visible in recent volume patterns. Those signals lead Raymond James to caution that a short corrective phase in the 1-3 week range may be starting.
Beyond the immediate window, the firm sees signs that an intermediate-term peak may be forming. The investment house says Newmont appears positioned to probe the 50-day moving average at approximately $103.65. According to the note, a multi-day close beneath that level would confirm a broader intermediate corrective phase lasting roughly 1-3 months and could open the door to a test of the $97.99 support area. Raymond James quantifies that $97.99 level as about a 13.2% decline from current levels cited in the report.
Raymond James also lays out a deeper downside scenario. The analysts warn that if Newmont were to register a weekly close below $97.99, the shares could be exposed to a move toward the 40-week moving average, which the firm places at about $79.49. That move would equate to roughly a 29.6% decline from current levels in the analysis.
At the same time, the firm does not abandon its longer-term constructive view. In its longer-horizon technical categorization, Raymond James continues to regard Newmont as a "Relative Leader," and notes that any pullback could present what it calls an "attractive longer-term entry point for investors." The firm advises risk control for new purchases near the $97.99 support level.
The technical commentary arrives alongside several operational and portfolio developments disclosed by Newmont. Raymond James' note references company reports that bushfire damage at the Boddington operation in Western Australia has harmed water supply infrastructure and is expected to reduce gold output by approximately 60,000 ounces in the first quarter of 2026. The company is also reducing its stake in Fuerte Metals Corporation through a sale valued at about US$22 million, bringing its ownership down from 24% to 19.5%.
Separately, Raymond James has increased its price target on Newmont to $111 from $99 while keeping an Outperform rating, pointing to solid cash flow generation and reduced jurisdictional risk as supporting factors for that stance.
In broader market context, the note observes that gold and silver mining stocks have weakened as precious metal prices retreat from recent highs. Major producers such as Barrick Mining, Agnico Eagle Mines, and Kinross Gold are cited as having experienced similar downturns, with Newmont among those affected. The combination of technical caution and ongoing operational developments provides the firm with a framework for both near-term risk management and longer-term opportunity assessment.
Investors and market participants will likely watch the proximity of Newmont's price action to the $103.65 50-day average and the $97.99 support level closely, per Raymond James' guidance. The firm recommends limiting exposure on fresh entries near the $97.99 area to manage risk should the intermediate corrective scenario materialize.